President Bola Ahmed Tinubu's administration must confront a critical failure of the post-colonial state in Africa: the neglect of succession planning. This oversight affects every sector, from politics to the economy, leaving the nation without a clear direction. Without a plan for the future, the country drifts aimlessly, resulting in poverty and stagnation. Unlike India, Malaysia, Indonesia, and Brazil, Africa has largely experienced motion without progress.
The Importance of a National Democratic Agreement
Succession planning requires a framework of orderly progression through unwritten conventions and consensus. Democracies that thrive, such as the United Kingdom, Germany, and Scandinavian countries, have evolved a National Democratic Agreement—unwritten rules accepted across the political spectrum. In the UK, a post-war consensus established the welfare state and social housing as stabilizers. Germany's tripartite system of government, private sector, and trade unions has created a solid democracy. Africa has failed to achieve such agreements, leading to widespread poverty and hopelessness.
Defining State Goals and Building Cadres
Succession planning begins with agreement on the state's nature and nomenclature, as well as long-term goals binding successive governments. It also requires developing a consistent cadre of proven quality to implement national plans. India and China exemplify this approach. China's Mandarin public service system has been effective for centuries, while India's rigorous civil service selection process—where 1 million applicants are whittled down to 800–1,000—has propelled it to become the world's sixth-largest economy.
Political Party Roles in Succession Planning
In functioning democracies, political parties recruit and mould young members, including teenagers, through youth camps and educational programs. For example, former British Prime Minister Gordon Brown joined the Labour Party in his teens, and Mhairi Black became the youngest MP in centuries after starting activism at 13. Nigerian parties must evolve from special purpose vehicles into ideologically driven organizations that nurture future leaders.
Lessons from the Private Sector
The private sector offers valuable lessons. Procter & Gamble, which promotes strictly from within, has succeeded for over two centuries. The Nigerian political economy should adopt such enduring models. Succession planning must drive the political economy and establish the state's hegemonic base.
Nigeria's Current Challenges
In Nigeria, succession often becomes a desperate scramble for survival rather than a vision-driven process. Leaders pick successors to cover their tracks, not to carry forward a vision. True success lies in handing over the baton effectively. Ekiti State Governor Biodun Abayomi Oyebanji's lecture on 'Building Legacies: Governance, Successor-generation and Continuity' at Afe Babalola University (ABUAD) highlights the need for reinvigorating succession planning.
The UAE's OPEC Exit and Awolowo's Legacy
The UAE's recent exit from OPEC echoes Chief Obafemi Awolowo's 1978 call for Nigeria to reconsider its membership. Awolowo's foresight was dismissed with religious undertones, but the UAE's decision is based on hard economic calculation. This underscores the need for serious debate and long-term planning.
Redefining Education for Succession
ABUAD's focus on linking technology with human capacity aligns with the evolving idea of a university. Oyebanji should revamp Ekiti's curriculum to include coding from primary school, ensuring students are competitive. Tertiary institutions must match ABUAD's standards to break the cycle of accidental leadership.
Succession planning is not just about installing a successor but entrenching an overall plan that endures beyond a single tenure. As Oyebanji aims to build legacies, he must prioritize succession to ensure the BAO spirit drives Ekiti State to greater heights long after his term ends.
