US Weary but Still Dominant
The United States, under President Donald Trump, has inflicted significant damage on both domestic and international institutions. However, contrary to the narrative pushed by Trump's ideologues, the US remains the world's dominant economic power. Its share of global trade may have shrunk, and the dollar's role in central bank reserves may have diminished, but the greenback still confers an "exorbitant privilege," as French President Valéry Giscard d'Estaing once described it. This allows the US government to borrow at lower costs than other nations, maintaining fiscal flexibility despite its debt.
The Grim Picture Belongs to Russia
The image of a besieged America, plagued by a struggling economy and endless wars, more accurately describes Russia. The former Soviet Union has shrunk from a bipolar superpower to an economy the size of Argentina's, bristling with nuclear weapons but lacking economic might. The post-World War II order, built by the US to contain socialism, successfully neutralized the USSR. However, communist China slipped through not because containment weakened, but because China transformed into a state capitalist autocracy under Deng Xiaoping, eventually joining the World Trade Organization in December 2001.
Global Pressures and Populist Backlash
Economic interdependence, falling fertility rates in the West, and technology's democratization of employment have pressured economies worldwide. In Europe, multicultural societies face populist nationalist parties as native populations feel besieged by immigrants. In the US, similar insurgencies have fractured the two major parties, especially the Republican Party. The post-WWII emphasis on freedoms and human rights has led to unintended consequences, as globalization creates tensions.
US Technological Leadership and New Vacuums
The US continues to lead in cutting-edge technology, yet it struggles to restrict global access to its innovations. Its new pivot creates vacuums that other powers may fill. The rupture in global supply chains will take time to manifest fully. But technology benefits those who can deploy it effectively, so a world less reliant on the US may still reap rewards from American advances. Cooperation is increasing as the US retrenches, but Washington must invest more to maintain its influence.
A Yoruba Proverb for America
As the Yoruba say, when a battling ram steps back, it is to reinforce. The Trump administration has wearied the US, making retreat more difficult but also necessary. The global governance architecture needs renewal to reflect ongoing changes. The US, though tired, can still lead by rebuilding both domestic and international institutions. Uddin Ifeanyi, a journalist and retired civil servant, offers this perspective.
