Former Chairman of the Forum of Former Members of the Enugu State House of Assembly and ex-South-East spokesman for President Bola Tinubu, Denge (Dr.) Josef Onoh, has advised former President Goodluck Jonathan against contesting the 2027 presidential election. Onoh warned that such a move could undermine Jonathan's legacy as a respected statesman.
In an open letter issued on Wednesday, Onoh emphasized that Jonathan remains widely respected for his decision to concede defeat in 2015, describing it as a defining moment in Nigeria's democratic history. He stated, "President Jonathan's act in 2015 remains a shining example of democratic maturity and statesmanship not only in Nigeria but across Africa and the world. He chose peace and the sanctity of lives over clinging to power. That singular decision cemented his place as a respected elder statesman. Returning to the arena now risks tarnishing that invaluable legacy."
Political Dynamics and Vote Splitting
Onoh argued that current political dynamics would make a successful comeback difficult for Jonathan. He explained that President Bola Tinubu would retain strong backing in the South-West, while the Nigeria Democratic Congress (NDC) presidential candidate, Peter Obi, would command significant support in the South-East and among younger voters. This could potentially split southern votes, making it challenging for Jonathan to secure a nationwide majority.
"This is not speculation but basic political arithmetic," Onoh stated. "Tinubu dominates the South-West machinery and votes. Obi commands loyalty in the South-East and substantial crossover in the South-South. A Jonathan entry fragments the southern votes, making it mathematically near-impossible to secure the required nationwide majority and 25 per cent in enough states."
Internal Party Divisions and Federal Control
He also cited internal divisions within the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) and what he described as the ruling party's control of federal structures as additional constraints. Onoh recalled that he had previously defended Jonathan's eligibility to contest in 2024 and supported him during the 2010 Doctrine of Necessity episode. However, he maintained that eligibility should not translate into a return to a politically unfavorable race.
"President Jonathan should recall that last year, I defended his eligibility to run for office. However, that eligibility should not propel him into a contest that leads to failure and damage to his hard-earned image," he said.
Warning Against Political Manipulation
Onoh further warned that Jonathan should be cautious of political actors he said contributed to his 2015 defeat and might again seek to leverage his influence for strategic gain. He cautioned, "History will judge harshly if you allow yourself to be used as a pawn and discarded afterward. Your place in history is already secured as the man who prioritised Nigeria's stability." He added, "Fool me once, shame on you; fool me twice, shame on me."
