Following a remarkable performance in the 2023 presidential election, Nigeria's Labour Party (LP) is now grappling with a significant loss of momentum as the country looks toward the 2027 polls. The party, which captured the imagination of youth voters, first-time participants, and the urban middle class, is confronting a series of deep challenges that threaten its viability.
Internal Crisis and Leadership Factionalism
The party has been severely weakened by a prolonged and bitter internal power struggle. A central dispute over the legitimacy of the national leadership, particularly involving the faction led by Julius Abure, has splintered the party's executive. This conflict led to the emergence of a rival faction with Senator Nenadi Usman as an interim national chairman, effectively creating two parallel party structures.
This instability has had a direct and costly impact. Political analysts note that the internal wrangling has reportedly cost the party more than half of its elected federal and state lawmakers. The leadership itself framed the eventual exit of its star figure, Peter Obi, as a confirmation of these earlier splits, stating the party had parted ways with him and some supporters in the National Assembly since September 2024.
Mass Defections and the Exit of Peter Obi
The Labour Party's ranks have thinned dramatically through a steady stream of high-profile defections. Reports indicate that the LP lost no fewer than 21 lawmakers in just 12 months. The exodus began as early as mid-2024, with figures like Senator Ezenwa Onyewuchi (Imo East) leading a group to join the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC).
The most significant blow came at the end of 2025 when the party's most prominent figure, Peter Obi, officially defected from the Labour Party to the African Democratic Congress (ADC). His departure triggered a further wave, with numerous federal and state lawmakers from the South-East, once an LP stronghold, crossing over to the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) or the APC. Each defection eroded the party's legislative presence and public profile.
The Fading Energy of the Obidient Movement
The youthful, volunteer-driven energy that powered the 'Obidient Movement' and electrified the 2023 campaign has visibly waned. Less than three years after the election, the movement is struggling to maintain its cohesion and momentum. Early rallies and vibrant social media campaigns have given way to organisational fatigue and frustration.
Key organisers have stepped back, citing a lack of resources and clear direction. One former director of mobilisation warned that "goodwill alone cannot sustain a political project beyond 2023". Without a professional structure or sustained funding, the grassroots fervour proved unsustainable, leaving a demoralised and disorganised base that lacks a clear, advancing national agenda.
Structural Weaknesses and National Organisation
Analysts point out that the LP's 2023 success was built more on Peter Obi's personal appeal and social media buzz than on deep, institutionalised party structures. Former PDP chieftain Gbe Benjamin noted the party's over-reliance on one individual rather than a robust nationwide machine.
In practice, this meant local LP branches remained weak or inactive, with few effective ward-level organisations, membership drives, or reliable fundraising mechanisms. The absence of a firm chain of command and steady finances allowed internal discord to flourish unchecked. The party's crumbling infrastructure was highlighted when its own leadership began documenting defectors and threatening legal action under the Electoral Act.
A Fragmented Opposition Landscape
Compounding the Labour Party's internal troubles is the fractured state of Nigeria's opposition. Peter Obi himself has repeatedly warned that no single party can oust the APC in 2027 without a united front and a single candidate. However, building a credible coalition has proven elusive.
Past opposition alliances in Nigeria have often collapsed due to ideological differences, leadership rivalries, and competing ambitions. The LP's own internal conflicts have further discouraged cooperation, as a lack of trust between key personalities makes it difficult to present itself as part of a credible unified ticket. Consequently, the Labour Party remains just one of several splintered opposition forces, rather than the rallying vehicle it once promised to be.
In summary, the combination of a severe leadership crisis, a mass exodus of members, a declining grassroots movement, weak nationwide structures, and a divided opposition has significantly sapped the Labour Party's momentum. The wave of youth energy that defined its 2023 campaign has eroded, presenting a formidable challenge for the party's prospects in the 2027 general elections.
