The London-based magazine The Economist has published an analysis suggesting that President Bola Tinubu could secure a second term in the January 2027 presidential election, despite being broadly unpopular among Nigerians. The article, titled "Nigerians Dislike Their President, But May Re-elect Him Anyway," points to what it describes as Nigeria's "complicated electoral dynamics" as the key reason the incumbent retains a plausible path to victory.
Why The Economist Sees a Path for Tinubu
The magazine cites several factors that could work in Tinubu's favour: political cynicism, a divided opposition, religious identity, incumbency advantages, and historically low voter turnout in areas affected by insecurity. It notes that Tinubu returned from Paris on Tuesday, September 29, after spending about a month in Europe, having extended what it described as a "working holiday" by several days. Despite the country's security and economic difficulties, the President appeared notably relaxed about his re-election prospects.
The article highlights the two-decade insurgency in Borno state, where jihadist factions generate income through kidnapping, extortion, and farm looting. It quotes a 27-year-old Maiduguri resident who said he had to travel to Chad to sell grain because local buyers could no longer afford it. The publication says voter turnout in Borno fell below 20 per cent in the 2023 election, against a national average of 27 per cent.
Economic Reforms and Opposition Divide
On economics, The Economist acknowledges that Tinubu's reforms have been "lauded by investors" but says they have not yet improved daily life for most of the country's 240 million people. Annual inflation in August remained around 15 per cent, with food inflation closer to 20 per cent.
Regarding the opposition, the publication notes that Atiku Abubakar of the ADC and Peter Obi of the NDC have not formed a joint ticket, which it says risks splitting the anti-APC vote. Analyst Joachim MacEbong of Control Risks is quoted saying: "Because it's not a united ticket, that anti-APC vote is not coalesced into a single vote."
ADC and NDC Reject The Economist's Prediction
The ADC's national publicity secretary, Mallam Bolaji Abdullahi, said the cost-of-living crisis, rather than religion or ethnicity, would drive voting decisions, ThisDay reported. "Nigerians across all divides are united under the cost of living crisis that the Tinubu administration has plunged them into," he said, adding that the only route to an APC victory was electoral manipulation.
The NDC's national publicity secretary, Osa Director, questioned how the publication could catalogue the President's weaknesses and still conclude he would win. "The Economist article agreed that Tinubu is so unpopular. So, how did it arrive at the conclusion that he would still win in spite of that?" the party said. The NDC maintained that there was no legitimate pathway to Tinubu's re-election.
Presidency Defends Tinubu's Economic Reforms
Presidential spokesperson Bayo Onanuga, posting on his verified X account @aonanuga1956, defended the administration's track record by drawing on Tinubu's October 1 Independence Day address. He said previous governments had treated symptoms rather than underlying structural problems. Onanuga quoted Tinubu directly: "Our reforms did not create the weaknesses in our economy. They confronted them."
The president said Nigeria's economy grew by more than four per cent this year, with both oil and non-oil sectors contributing to what he called a renewed period of stable growth.
Early Projection: Tinubu Leads in 2027 Poll
In a related development, a political research body has placed President Tinubu in the lead position in an early projection of the 2027 presidential election, forecasting that he would win 20 states if the vote were held under current conditions. The Political Intelligence Group (PIG) of Politico.ng projected that former Vice President Atiku Abubakar would win nine states, while Labour Party candidate Peter Obi would secure eight states and the Federal Capital Territory.
