Nigeria's Escalating Insecurity Crisis Poses Existential Threat to Governance Gains
Is the pervasive insecurity in Nigeria beginning to overshadow the achievements of President Bola Tinubu's administration? This pressing question is no longer limited to opposition critics but is increasingly voiced by concerned citizens nationwide. Reports indicate that Nigeria's position on global insecurity rankings has deteriorated since Tinubu assumed office on May 29, 2023, raising alarms about the nation's stability.
Alarming Data Reveals a Grim Picture of Violence and Loss
Data from multiple monitoring agencies paints a stark and troubling portrait of the security situation. Violence perpetrated by bandits, insurgents, terrorists, and criminal gangs continues to claim lives at an alarming and escalating rate. Casualty figures are rising geometrically rather than incrementally, with at least 2,266 people reportedly killed in the first half of 2025 alone—a number that surpasses the total fatalities recorded throughout 2024.
The National Human Rights Commission documented 570 killings and 278 kidnappings in April 2025 alone, highlighting the severity of the crisis. Benue State has recorded over 6,896 deaths in two years, one of the highest tolls in the country. Recent incidents underscore the scale of the devastation, including 218 people killed in Benue State in June 2025, 55 killed in Boko Haram attacks in Borno State in September 2025, and over 2,630 people killed in Plateau State within two years, including a deadly Palm Sunday attack.
Repeated Invasions and Territorial Control Concerns
In parts of Kaduna State, armed groups reportedly attacked the same community twice within two months, killing and abducting residents with little resistance. Such repeated invasions raise troubling questions about the state's control over its territory and the effectiveness of security measures. Nigeria is not officially at war, yet the scale of fatalities invites comparison with internationally recognised conflict thresholds.
The Uppsala Conflict Data Programme classifies a situation as war when battle-related deaths exceed 1,000 per year. By that benchmark, some regions of Nigeria, based on reported figures, would meet the criteria of a conflict zone. This concern is not merely statistical; it is existential. If insecurity continues at this pace, it risks eclipsing whatever gains the administration may have recorded in economic reform and political restructuring.
Security Agencies Appear Overwhelmed by Non-State Actors
Arising from recent events, it is difficult to avoid the conclusion that non-state actors—terrorists, bandits, and insurgents—appear to be gaining the upper hand over Nigeria's security agencies, including the Armed Forces, the Directorate of State Services, and the Police. Any claim to the contrary strains credibility. In the past month alone, a series of deadly attacks in North-Central and North-West Nigeria have left scores of defenceless citizens dead.
The attack in Ungwan Rukuba in Jos reportedly claimed 28 lives and left many others injured, prompting President Tinubu to suspend a planned four-state tour and prioritise a condolence visit. However, poor coordination and weak messaging turned what should have been a moment of national solidarity into a public relations setback, as the visit ended at the airport rather than at the affected community.
Symbolic Gestures and Political Management Challenges
The backlash is particularly striking given President Tinubu's recent symbolic gesture: on his 74th birthday, he directed that his remuneration since assuming office be channelled into a support fund for families of fallen service personnel. This was a commendable move, especially as security operatives themselves have increasingly become targets of violent attacks. Yet, the goodwill from that gesture has been diluted by poor political management.
In a climate where critics are quick to capitalise on missteps, especially in a politically sensitive season, symbolism without strategic execution carries significant risks. Compounding matters is the perception problem, with earlier criticism for not postponing a UK visit following an attack in Maiduguri and delayed arrival in Jos due to prior engagements on regional security.
The Urgent Need for Decisive Action and Transparency
Nigeria is not formally at war, yet the scale and frequency of killings tell a different story. As Pope Leo remarked during his Easter homily, "We are getting accustomed to violence." This observation resonates locally, with incidents like 28 lives lost in Jos and 17 in Kajuru on the same day underscoring a nation in distress. In matters of insecurity, there should be no no-go areas for a Commander-in-Chief.
When a president appears restricted within his own territory—even for security reasons—the symbolism is powerful and troubling. The challenge now is clear: unless insecurity is decisively confronted, it risks eclipsing whatever gains have been made in economic reform and political restructuring. Transparency from the president's communication team is crucial to address misinformation and build public trust in these critical times.
