For months, a pressing question has dominated national discourse: why is Nigeria in a state of profound crisis? Drawing from extensive field research, interviews from Maiduguri to Lagos, and analysis of government data, a clear but complex picture emerges of a nation grappling with interconnected emergencies that affect all 220 million citizens.
The Tangible Reality of a National Emergency
The statistics are stark and speak to a daily reality of fear and hardship. At least 2,266 Nigerians were killed by bandits or insurgents in just the first six months of 2025. This relentless violence is matched by an economic stranglehold, with food inflation hitting a staggering 39.93 per cent in November 2025, while overall inflation stood at 34.60 per cent. The consequence is simple yet devastating: a family's market budget must now double to purchase the same bag of rice, a crisis touching every household.
Deconstructing the Roots: Why Nigeria is in Turmoil
The current predicament is not a sudden occurrence but the culmination of deep-seated, systemic failures that have festered for decades.
Insecurity as the Backbone: The nation faces a hydra-headed security nightmare. The Boko Haram and Islamic State West Africa Province (ISWAP) insurgency persists in the Northeast, while banditry terrorises the Northwest. Separatist tensions simmer in the Southeast, and farmer-herder conflicts bleed from the Middle Belt southward. This violence has a human face: over 1.3 million people were internally displaced in the Northcentral and Northwest by April 2024. These are families like that of Amina from Zamfara, who fled at dawn with only the clothes on their backs, now unable to return to generational farmland.
Economic Shockwaves and Policy Pain: Economic instability compounds the security crisis. Policies like the June 2023 fuel subsidy removal and Naira flotation, though rational in theory, triggered a cascade of hardship. The Naira's value collapsed from about 750 to the dollar in 2022 to approximately 1,750 by 2024. Transport costs tripled overnight, and businesses reliant on imports faced ruin, pushing millions from cautious optimism into mere survival mode.
The Cancer of Corruption and Institutional Decay: Pervasive weak governance and corruption undermine every response. It manifests in the ₦14.8 trillion spent on security over nine years with worsening outcomes, in the "something for the weekend" demanded at checkpoints, and in hospitals lacking supplies while budgets vanish. This erosion of faith in the state's basic functionality is perhaps the most damaging crisis of all.
Amplifiers: Climate Change and Global Shocks: Underlying vulnerabilities are amplified by external pressures. The September 2024 collapse of the Alau Dam in Borno State was a climate event exacerbated by decades of infrastructure neglect. Similarly, global shocks like COVID-19 and oil price fluctuations devastate an economy still overly dependent on petroleum exports, which contributed just 4.60 per cent to GDP in the 2024 rebasing.
A Nation in Distress: The Current Landscape
The situation as of December 2025 is severe and multifaceted, with regional variations revealing a country under immense strain.
Northern Nigeria bears the brunt. The Northeast faces Emergency (IPC Phase 4) food insecurity in Borno State LGAs due to the Boko Haram/ISWAP insurgency, with food inflation in Yobe at 49.69%. The Northwest grapples with banditry and mass kidnappings, displacing over 200,000 people and pushing Sokoto's food inflation to 51.30%.
The economic indicators are alarming. Foreign Direct Investment cratered by more than 70%, falling from $421.88 million in Q4 2024 to $126.29 million in Q1 2025. Agricultural production grew a meagre 0.07% in Q1 2025 against a 3% population growth rate, a direct result of farmers being chased from their lands.
Human rights and civic freedoms are under attack. The UN has held Nigeria responsible for systematic violations of women's rights amid mass abductions. At least 69 attacks on journalists were recorded in 2025, with 74% perpetrated by state actors, causing Nigeria to slip to 122nd in the World Press Freedom Index.
The Major Conflict: A Multi-Legged Stool of Violence
While it is an oversimplification to name one major conflict, the interconnected security crises in the north have the most cascading effects. The Boko Haram insurgency, now involving ISWAP, launches daily attacks to make territory ungovernable. Banditry in the northwest has evolved into a lucrative kidnapping economy, exemplified by the abduction of 303 pupils and 12 teachers from a Catholic school in Niger State on 21 November 2025. Farmer-herder conflicts continue to kill hundreds and destroy agricultural productivity. This insecurity is the ultimate crisis multiplier, stifling the economy, displacing populations, and traumatising a generation.
A Pathway Forward: A 7-Step Framework for Recovery
Overcoming this crisis is possible but requires systematic, sustained effort, not magic bullets. A proposed framework includes:
1. Acknowledge the Crisis Without Despair: Honest assessment is the first step, avoiding both minimization and hopelessness. Nations like Rwanda and South Korea have rebuilt from profound trauma.
2. Trace Root Causes Beyond Symptoms: School attacks and price spikes are symptoms. Effective response requires addressing the marginalisation, unemployment, and weak governance that drive them.
3. Recognise Interconnections: Insecurity destroys farming, which causes food inflation, which impoverishes people, making them vulnerable to recruitment by armed groups, which increases insecurity. Breaking these cycles requires simultaneous interventions.
4. Demand Accountability at Every Level: The massive security spending with worsening outcomes demands rigorous investigation and consequences. Sustained citizen and media pressure is essential.
5. Support Local Peace-Building: Community-led initiatives in states like Kaduna and Plateau have proven effective. Government should support and replicate these models.
6. Diversify Economic Foundations: Ending dangerous dependence on oil requires long-term commitment to agriculture, manufacturing, and technology, accepting short-term pain for long-term stability.
7. Invest in Human Capital and Social Cohesion: Nigeria's greatest asset is its people, especially its youth. Investment in education, healthcare, and skills training, alongside rebuilding national unity, is non-negotiable.
Conclusion: A Crisis of Convergence
Nigeria's crisis exists because multiple failures—in security, economy, and governance—have converged and amplified each other over decades. It continues because change threatens powerful interests. It can be overcome only when a critical mass of citizens and leaders decide the cost of the status quo exceeds the difficulty of transformation. The resilience of the Nigerian people is undeniable, evident in teachers inspiring students without resources and farmers returning to threatened lands. The path forward exists. Walking it requires daily choices by millions to demand and build something better.
