The initial excitement generated by the Not Too Young To Run movement, which promised to break age barriers and usher Nigerian youth into political leadership, has collided with a stubborn reality. Despite a constitutional amendment in 2018, data indicates a worrying stagnation and even decline in the number of young people securing electoral candidacy, raising urgent questions about the true obstacles to youth inclusion.
The Numbers Tell a Story of Stagnation
Since President Muhammadu Buhari signed the Not Too Young To Run bill into law on May 31, 2018, the anticipated surge of young candidates has failed to materialize. According to reports from Yiaga Africa, overall youth candidacy across all elections dropped from 34% in 2019 to 28.6% in 2023. The decline is visible in key legislative races: candidacy for the House of Representatives fell from 27.4% to 21.6%, and even in State Houses of Assembly, traditionally a more accessible entry point, it declined from 41.8% to 35.6%.
This statistical trend culminates in a stark political architecture. In a nation where citizens under 35 form a decisive demographic majority, power remains concentrated with an older elite. The Senate currently has no youth representation. In the 360-member House of Representatives, only 14 members are under 40, a mere 3.92%. At the executive level, Nigeria's youngest serving governor, Ahmed Usman Ododo of Kogi State, assumed office at 43—far above the 35-year benchmark that inspired the constitutional change.
Beyond Apathy: The Structural Hurdle of Geography
Conventional explanations often point to youth apathy, lack of capacity, or poor organization. However, this interpretation overlooks a critical structural factor: the geographical dislocation of educated, upwardly mobile young Nigerians from their political constituencies.
Nigerian politics is intensely local, built on networks of trust, repeated physical presence, and deep community ties. Yet, the nation's economic dynamics pull ambitious youth away from these very communities. Data from the National Bureau of Statistics and the International Organisation for Migration indicates that over 60% of Nigerian youths engage in internal migration for work, moving from rural areas and towns to major urban centres like Lagos, Abuja, Port Harcourt, and Kano.
This creates a fundamental disconnect. While young people build careers and lives in cosmopolitan cities, the political capital required to win elections is accumulated back in their home constituencies, where they are no longer physically present. As noted by the late political scholar Professor Ayo Olukotun, a lecturer at Ahmadu Bello University, University of Lagos, and others, this mobility, driven by modernization, forms a hidden barrier to engagement.
Digital Strength vs. Offline Political Reality
The contradiction is sharpened by the evident political capacity of Nigerian youth, demonstrated powerfully by movements like #EndSARS in 2020. That movement revealed a generation skilled at large-scale digital mobilization, agenda-setting, and sustained civic action. Young people remain the engine of mobilization in both politics and civil society.
However, electoral success in Nigeria's political economy is not a simple function of demographic numbers or social media popularity. It is determined by entrenched systems of party control, ethno-religious identity, patronage, and the offline legitimacy that comes from geographical proximity. Social media reach cannot substitute for long-term, face-to-face community building.
As the political establishment consolidates power ahead of the 2027 elections, the data suggests the symbolic victory of Not Too Young To Run risks being outpaced by a lack of tangible outcomes. Addressing youth exclusion may require new strategies that confront not just age, but the very real economic forces that separate a generation of potential leaders from the local arenas where political power is won.
