The recent abduction of dozens of pupils across three schools in Oriire Local Government of Oyo State has once again exposed the fragility of Nigeria's security architecture. Writing in the Guardian, Abiodun Komolafe argues that this incident must not lead to blame trading but rather serve as a catalyst for strategic rethinking.
Need for Strategic Rethinking
Komolafe draws on the work of General Sir Frank Kitson, a British counterinsurgency expert, to emphasize that conventional armies must adopt the mindset of guerrilla insurgents to anticipate and outmaneuver them. He notes that insurgents use civilian populations as camouflage and establish sleeper cells in anticipated future areas, a tactic well-documented in analyses of the Vietnam War.
The author questions why Nigeria has not learned from the British experience in combating the Irish Republican Army (IRA), which required a complete overhaul of intelligence apparatus. He urges Nigerian authorities to collaborate with international partners like the British government to dismantle sleeper cells that turn impoverished locals into intelligence gatherers for terrorists.
State Policing as a Solution
Komolafe argues that devolving internal security through state policing is essential. He points to the United States' failure in Vietnam, where the lack of localized security networks made communities vulnerable to guerrilla attacks. He notes that state policing was highly effective in Nigeria during the First Republic, operating on limited budgets to contain criminal elements in rural areas.
The author calls for constitutional amendments and fiscal guidelines to establish a devolved internal security framework, including zonal policing boards with civil society organization (CSO) participation. He criticizes the current lack of transparency and parliamentary oversight, which has allowed a conflict industry to thrive on insecurity.
Reviving the Safe Schools Initiative
Komolafe emphasizes the need to revive the moribund Safe Schools Initiative (SSI). He proposes a forensic audit by a panel of respected figures and CSO members to determine what went wrong and how to reignite the program. Without a functional SSI, the number of out-of-school children will rise, providing more recruits for insurgents.
The author warns that propaganda does not win guerrilla warfare and that insider compromises within the security architecture are often to blame for catastrophic failures. He calls for a complete review of strategy, starting with the SSI.
Deployment of Forest Rangers and Technology
Komolafe commends the deployment of forest guards in the Southwest but argues that it is just a beginning. He recommends deploying at least 7,000 highly-trained forest rangers and 1,000 drones for patrols and precision strikes within five years. He suggests that Nigeria could leverage favorable payment terms from countries like Turkey to acquire this technology.
The author stresses that securing the hinterlands is crucial for the survival of civilization, drawing a parallel to the decline of the Roman Empire due to barbarian incursions that disrupted the rural economy. He urges the Southwest to act with caution and strategic foresight.
Conclusion: Intellectual Honesty Required
Komolafe concludes by calling for intellectual honesty to accept that there is no coherent strategy to defend the Southwest. He references Charles Omole's book, 'From Soldier to Statesman: The Legacy of Muhammadu Buhari,' which exposes the kidnapping industrial complex and how officials profited from insecurity under the past administration. He doubts that security chiefs have studied such blueprints, emphasizing the need for a paradigm shift.
The article serves as a stark reminder that Nigeria must evolve its approach to internal security, moving beyond emotional lamentation to confront the hard truths of insurgency and public safety.
