US Secretary of State Marco Rubio has informed several foreign counterparts in recent days that the United States is not expected to initiate new strikes against Iran "for the time being," according to a US official and a second source with knowledge of the matter. Instead, the focus has shifted to other means of pressure, including a new sanctions initiative announced this week.
Rubio's Message to Allies
Rubio's message to foreign ministers from several allied countries comes as the US believes it is suffocating Iran with a naval blockade while moving increasing amounts of oil out of the Strait of Hormuz. The shift also signals that President Donald Trump is exasperated with the war and wants it to end, at least for now.
The US official said Rubio made clear that the US is not planning a return to major combat operations, but he did not rule out strikes if Iran attacks first. Reports indicate Rubio outlined the Trump administration's current Iran policy in phone calls with several counterparts, focusing on three key points: avoiding military action against Iran for the time being, increasing economic pressure through the naval blockade and the new Treasury Department sanctions push, and transporting as much oil as possible through the strait into global energy markets.
Naval Blockade and Mine Clearing
Another US official described the clearing of mines from the Strait of Hormuz by the US Navy as a watershed moment in the war, largely neutralizing one of Iran's main sources of leverage. US officials say the clearing of mines from most of the strait, coupled with the fact that more tankers have been moving through the southern lane in recent weeks, significantly reduces Iran's leverage over global energy markets.
"The Iranians have lost control over the strait. Now the US controls it," one US official said. The naval blockade is depriving Iran of critical revenue; over the last two weeks, almost no tankers have been spotted at Kharg Island, Iran's main oil export hub, according to US officials.
Economic Pressure and Diplomatic Moves
State Department spokesman Tommy Pigott told Axios, "The Iranian economy is in free fall and the regime's military has been decimated, and we are cutting off every financial lifeline the regime has remaining." He added, "The President has been clear that Iran cannot have a nuclear weapon, and that he will use the tools necessary to ensure that objective is accomplished."
Pakistan's army chief, Field Marshal Asim Munir, was in Tehran on Sunday for talks with the Iranian leadership. Pakistan has been a key mediator between the US and Iran since the war began. According to Al Arabiya, the Saudi-affiliated TV station, Munir spoke to Trump before the trip and suggested a new proposal for the Iranians. The White House did not deny that Trump spoke to Munir but said there are no current or scheduled negotiations with Iran.
Impact on Iran's Leverage
A second US official said this policy is expected to remain in place at least until after the midterm elections, when a new military campaign could again be on the table. US officials say the new developments in the strait and the growing volume of oil coming out of the Gulf have deprived Iran of a major card in any future negotiations and made any potential deal between Oman and Iran regarding the strait irrelevant.
"Right now we are not negotiating with Iran. We are squeezing them. The pressure could drive the Iranians back to the table," a US official said.
