Opta's supercomputer has made its prediction for which team will advance to the 2025/26 UEFA Champions League final from the semi-final clash between Arsenal and Atletico Madrid. The second leg takes place at the Emirates Stadium in London on Tuesday, May 5, 2026, at 8 pm, following a 1-1 draw in the first leg at the Riyadh Air Metropolitano Stadium in Spain.
Match Significance
This match is of paramount importance for both clubs, as neither has ever won the UEFA Champions League trophy in its current or previous format. Arsenal has not reached the final in 20 years, while Atletico Madrid has not done so in a decade. The first leg saw goals from strikers Viktor Gyokeres and Julian Alvarez, both from the penalty spot. Arsenal felt aggrieved after a VAR decision overturned a penalty awarded by referee Daniel Makkelie for a foul on Eberechi Eze.
Supercomputer Analysis
According to The Analyst, Opta's supercomputer has simulated the match 10,000 times. The results give Arsenal a 56% chance of winning within 90 minutes and progressing to the final. Atletico Madrid, playing away and having lost 4-0 on their last visit to the Emirates, have a 20.2% chance of victory. A draw occurred in 23.7% of simulations, meaning Arsenal has a 79.7% chance of staying alive until extra time. Interestingly, the supercomputer had predicted a win for Arsenal in the first leg, which ended in a draw.
Manager Messages
Mikel Arteta urged his Arsenal players to seize the opportunity: "Go and grab it. When you are in front of such an opportunity, it means that you are ready to deliver, and the team is going to go from the first minute to go and get that. First of all, to get the best preparation for the game. Be prepared, be ready, big quality, big clarity, and deliver on the day. That's the most important thing."
Diego Simeone had a concise message for his Atletico Madrid squad: "I'm going to try to tell the team to play like they did in the second half. Let's see. If it's that easy, it would be great."
Other Predictions
Meanwhile, a mysterious cat named Nimbus Pronos has predicted that Atletico Madrid will reach the final, backing Diego Simeone's side after the 1-1 draw in the first leg. The other semi-final sees Bayern Munich host Paris Saint-Germain at the Allianz Arena on Wednesday, May 6, 2026, with PSG holding a 5-4 lead from the first leg.
