Opta's supercomputer has released its prediction for the 2026 FIFA World Cup semi-final between France and Spain, favouring Les Bleus to advance. According to The Analyst, France holds a 43.9% chance of winning in regular time, while Spain has a 29% probability of victory. A draw, which would lead to extra time, is expected in 27.1% of the 25,000 pre-game simulations conducted by the supercomputer.
France and Spain Set for Semi-final Showdown
The two European giants will meet at AT&T Stadium in the United States on Tuesday, July 14, for a place in the final. France secured their spot by defeating Mexico 2-0 in the quarter-final, with goals from Kylian Mbappe and Ousmane Dembele. Spain edged past Belgium in a dramatic 2-1 victory, with Mikel Merino scoring a late winner after Charles de Ketelaere had cancelled out Fabian Ruiz's opener.
This semi-final marks a rematch of the 2024 European Championship semi-final, where Spain defeated France 2-1. However, the stakes are higher now, as the winner will play either England or Argentina in the final. According to FIFA, Spain is aiming to reach their first World Cup final since winning the tournament in 2010, while France seeks to appear in their second consecutive final after losing to Argentina in 2022.
Supercomputer Favourites Shift
Before the tournament, Spain were considered the top favourites by Opta's model. However, France's strong performances, including a dominant quarter-final win, have shifted the odds. The supercomputer now gives France a 43.9% chance to win in 90 minutes, compared to Spain's 29%. A draw is predicted 27.1% of the time, which would force extra time and potentially penalties.
Kylian Mbappe, who scored in the quarter-final, has confirmed his readiness for the semi-final after suffering an ankle injury against Morocco. The French captain downplayed the severity of the injury, stating he will be available for the crucial clash. Mbappe's presence is vital for France as they look to overcome a young and talented Spanish side led by Lamine Yamal.
Key Players and Tactical Insights
France will rely on their experienced core, including Mbappe, Antoine Griezmann, and N'Golo Kante, to break down Spain's possession-based style. Spain, meanwhile, will look to exploit their midfield dominance with players like Pedri and Fabian Ruiz. The match promises to be a tactical battle between two of the tournament's best teams.
The winner of this semi-final will face either England or Argentina in the final, with both teams also considered strong contenders. France's path to a third World Cup final in four editions is within reach, but Spain's hunger for a second title cannot be underestimated.
