Opta's supercomputer has identified France as the team most likely to win the 2026 FIFA World Cup, giving Les Bleus a 31.42% chance after they and Morocco secured quarterfinal berths. France beat Paraguay 1-0 in the Round of 16, while Morocco defeated co-host Canada 3-0.
France Edges Paraguay with Mbappe Penalty
France labored to a 1-0 victory over Paraguay in the Round of 16, with Real Madrid forward Kylian Mbappe scoring the winning goal from a second-half penalty. The goal moved Mbappe level with Argentina legend Lionel Messi as the tournament's top scorer. France had averaged three goals per game before this match, but struggled to break down a resilient Paraguayan defense.
Morocco Dominates Co-Host Canada
Morocco convincingly defeated co-host Canada 3-0, with all goals coming in the second half. Girona forward Azzedine Ounahi scored a brace, and substitute Soufiane Rahimi added the third to seal a memorable victory for the 2025 Africa Cup of Nations winners. Morocco and France will meet in the quarterfinals on Thursday, July 9.
Opta Supercomputer Favorites
According to Opta's supercomputer, France is the overwhelming favorite with a 31.42% chance of winning the tournament on July 19. Defending champions Argentina are second with a 15.47% chance after surviving a scare against Cape Verde in the Round of 32. Cape Verde twice came from behind against Lionel Messi's side, nearly forcing penalties. Argentina will face Egypt in the Round of 16, with a potential quarterfinal against Switzerland or Colombia.
Spain is third in the winners projection with 12.81% ahead of their Round of 16 clash against Portugal. Portugal, who beat Spain on penalties in the 2025 UEFA Nations League final, have only a 4.86% chance of winning the World Cup. Other contenders include Brazil and England, who could meet Argentina in the semifinals.
CAF President Reacts to Morocco's Victory
Confederation of African Football (CAF) president Patrice Motsepe reacted with delight as Morocco defeated co-hosts Canada to reach the quarterfinals. Motsepe was visibly jubilant after Soufiane Rahimi scored Morocco's third goal, sealing the 3-0 victory.
The 2026 World Cup continues to produce dramatic upsets as Norway, Egypt, and co-hosts Mexico also aim to book their spots in the last eight. The tournament has already seen several surprises, with Cape Verde nearly eliminating Argentina and Portugal needing a late VAR call to beat 2018 finalists Croatia.
