Nigeria, the world's largest cassava producer, has failed to harness its status as a formidable exporter, according to stakeholders. Data from the United Nations Comtrade database shows that Nigeria exported roughly 5,000 metric tonnes of cassava products in 2023, about one percent of its production volume. In contrast, Thailand, which produces about half of Nigeria's output, exported about seven million metric tonnes of cassava-based derivatives, approximately 21 percent of its production, in the same year.
Opportunity and Challenge
Stakeholders say the gap points to a clear opportunity for Nigeria but also reveals that high production alone does not create export competitiveness. This raises a critical question: which cassava derivatives can be exported competitively, into which markets, and under what operating conditions? Industry analysts note that commercial viability depends on whether the country's processors can compete on product specification, scale, landed cost, and commercial credibility.
According to the Nigeria Cassava Investment Accelerator (NCIA), some pathways appear credible in the near term, while others remain attractive in theory but difficult in practice. The NCIA insight lists exporting native starch into China, sweeteners into other African markets, cassava chips into China, and starch export into Europe as credible routes where Nigerian processors can close gaps and maximize potential.
Native Starch into China
NCIA describes exporting native starch into China as the clearest near-term opening. Data from the International Trade Centre (ITC) suggests China is the world's largest cassava starch import market, taking in more than 3.8 million metric tonnes yearly. Industry interviews suggest some buyers are actively looking to diversify away from Thai and Vietnamese supply, creating a possible opening for new entrants with reliable output and competitive pricing. However, this route requires consistent product quality, adequate working capital, and reliable shipment performance. Processors need to land starch competitively against prevailing import prices of $518 to $594 per tonne.
Sweeteners into Africa
Export of sweeteners into African markets may offer the most strategic medium-term play. Trade data for 2024 suggests regional demand for sweeteners like glucose and sorbitol in African countries excluding Nigeria stands at roughly 300,000 to 400,000 metric tonnes. Kenya, South Africa, and Egypt together account for about a fifth to a quarter of total African demand. Nigerian processors would need to meet food-grade specifications consistently, including purity and performance requirements. This pathway is also plausible for existing starch processors that can add downstream conversion capacity.
Cassava Chips into China
China has imported an average of five million metric tonnes of cassava chips yearly over the past decade, with trade worth more than $1 billion yearly at prevailing FOB prices of about $222 per tonne. Chips are used primarily as feedstock for ethanol production. Buyers assess chips against clear technical thresholds: starch content at least 67 percent, moisture below 14 percent, fiber below five percent, and sand and silica below three percent. Nigerian processors face challenges in scale, as buyers may require 700 to 1,400 metric tonnes per day, while most Nigerian processors operate at 15 to 30 metric tonnes per day. Additionally, freight costs from Nigeria to China are higher, creating a cost gap of roughly $91 per tonne.
Starch into Europe
Europe offers demand for starch, though not a strong fit with Nigeria's current product base. The EU imports roughly 150,000 to 200,000 metric tonnes of cassava starch a year, but 60 to 70 percent is modified starch, while Nigerian processors remain concentrated in native starch. This makes Europe harder to penetrate. Success would require investing in modification capability or supplying intermediaries, along with proving continuity of supply and consistent quality.
NCIA stresses that while Nigeria's cassava export opening is real, it will not be captured by scale alone. The more credible route lies in a smaller set of derivative-market matches where processors can close gaps on scale, cost, and specification.
