Cowry Asset Management Limited has projected that Nigeria's real gross domestic product (GDP) will grow between 3.98 percent and 4.03 percent in the second quarter of 2026, citing the resilience of key economic sectors as a supporting factor. The investment firm stated that economic activities are expected to remain moderately strong, buoyed by continued growth in telecommunications, financial services, agriculture, transportation, water supply, and selected manufacturing segments.
Risks to Economic Growth
However, the firm warned that rising energy costs, global economic uncertainty, insecurity, and weak infrastructure investment pose major risks to economic growth. This projection follows the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) report that Nigeria's economy expanded by 3.89 percent year-on-year in the first quarter, up from 3.13 percent in the same period of 2025.
According to Cowry Asset Management, the first-quarter performance underscored the resilience of the domestic economy despite global uncertainties and lingering structural constraints. The firm noted that growth during the period was largely driven by sustained expansion in major non-oil sectors, including telecommunications, agriculture, trade, manufacturing, financial services, construction, real estate, and transportation.
Sectoral Breakdown
Agricultural Sector
A breakdown of the GDP report showed that the agricultural sector grew by 3.15 percent in real terms, compared with 0.07 percent in the first quarter of 2025. The improvement was attributed to stronger crop production activities and relative stability in the food supply chain.
Industrial Sector
Similarly, the industrial sector recorded a growth rate of 3.5 percent, slightly higher than the 3.42 percent achieved in the corresponding period of last year, supported by improved manufacturing and construction activities.
Services Sector
The services sector maintained its position as the largest contributor to economic growth, expanding by 4.31 percent, although marginally lower than the 4.33 percent recorded a year earlier. Analysts at Cowry noted that the non-oil sector remained the major driver of economic expansion, growing by 3.94 percent in the first quarter and contributing 96.08 percent of total real GDP.
Key Contributors to Growth
According to the firm, the performance highlighted the increasing role of domestic non-oil activities in driving economic growth, with telecommunications, crop production, trade, cement manufacturing, financial institutions, construction, real estate, and road transportation emerging as key contributors. The report also linked the sector's performance to improved business activity, relative stability in exchange rates, and the gradual impact of ongoing economic reforms.
Mining and Oil Sector
Within the mining and quarrying sector, growth slowed to 1.89 percent year-on-year, although the sector's contribution to GDP rose to 4.14 percent from 3.16 percent in the preceding quarter. The oil sector grew by 2.57 percent, higher than the 1.87 percent recorded in the first quarter of 2025 but below the 6.79 percent achieved in the fourth quarter of 2025. Average crude oil production stood at 1.55 million barrels per day, reflecting continued production challenges within the upstream segment.
