The Nigerian Institute of Social and Economic Research (NISER) has unveiled its medium-term economic outlook, projecting a steady recovery for Nigeria's economy over the next three years. According to the report released on Monday, the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth is expected to reach 5.02 percent by 2028, while headline inflation is forecast to decline to single digits.
The projections, contained in NISER's 2026–2028 macroeconomic forecast, signal a turnaround from the persistent inflationary pressures and economic challenges that have characterized Africa's largest economy in recent years. Researchers attributed the expected gains to ongoing fiscal reforms, improved revenue mobilization, and growth in the non-oil sector.
The outlook was presented at the NISER Research Seminar Series in Ibadan, themed 'Prospects for the Nigerian Economy, 2026–2028.' The seminar brought together policymakers, researchers, academics, development practitioners, and stakeholders from both the public and private sectors to discuss policy measures needed to sustain macroeconomic stability and inclusive growth.
According to the forecast, GDP growth is projected to rise from 3.92 percent in 2025 to 4.72 percent in 2026, then to 4.85 percent in 2027, before reaching 5.02 percent in 2028. NISER stated that this expansion hinges on continued policy consistency, infrastructure development, exchange rate stability, and favorable global economic conditions.
Consumer price increases are expected to moderate from 15.15 percent in 2025 to 11.66 percent in 2026, then to 7.86 percent in 2027, and finally to 5.61 percent in 2028—a level not seen in over a decade. Food inflation, a key driver of Nigeria's cost-of-living crisis, is also forecast to ease gradually. NISER linked this decline to anticipated improvements in agricultural production, supported by exchange rate stability and tighter monetary policy measures.
The debt service-to-revenue ratio, which severely strained government finances in the early 2020s, is expected to remain at more sustainable levels throughout the forecast period. NISER noted that ongoing efforts to broaden the tax base, expand non-oil revenue sources, and implement fiscal reforms are already yielding positive results.
“The Nigerian economy is expected to experience gradual stabilization and moderate recovery over the next three years. These implementation mechanisms are needed at national and sub-national levels,” the NISER report stated.
However, NISER warned that sustaining the projected gains would require policy consistency, effective implementation of reforms, and targeted investment in productive sectors. The seminar also emphasized the need for strengthened institutional mechanisms to improve jobs, incomes, productivity, access to services, and business opportunities.
