Nigeria's crude oil production increased to 1.53 million barrels per day (mb/d) in May 2026, according to direct communication data from the Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) June 2026 Monthly Oil Market Report. This marks a modest recovery for Africa's largest oil-producing economy as macroeconomic conditions improve.
Production Recovery
The latest output represents an increase from 1.488 mb/d recorded in April, reinforcing Nigeria's gradual production recovery after months of supply disruptions, underinvestment concerns, and infrastructure constraints that have weighed on the oil sector. The report also showed that Nigeria maintained its position among Africa's leading crude producers alongside Algeria, Libya, and Congo as OPEC members continued efforts to stabilize supply in an increasingly volatile energy market.
Economic Outlook Improves
Beyond oil production, OPEC painted a more optimistic picture of Nigeria's broader economy, citing stronger business activity, improving reforms, and rising domestic demand. “Nigeria's economic outlook has continued to improve, supported by stronger macroeconomic stability, robust private consumption growth, and firmer business activity,” the report stated. It recalled that the country's gross domestic product (GDP) expanded by 3.9 percent in the first quarter of 2026 compared to the same period last year. “Non-oil sector growth was driven mainly by agriculture, manufacturing, construction, information and communication, trade, and finance and insurance, which together accounted for the bulk of the quarterly expansion,” the report stated.
Growth Momentum
The organization noted that growth momentum remained strong despite continuing global uncertainties in the energy market. “The 2026 growth outlook remains healthy, also supported by the latest survey indices. In this respect, the PMI pointed to continued momentum, rising to 54.1 in May from 52.4 in April, 51.9 in March and 53.2 in February, marking the greatest improvement in private-sector conditions since August 2023,” the report stated.
Reforms and Refining
OPEC further linked the country's improving outlook to ongoing reforms and expanding refining activities. “Growth remains supported by structural reforms, infrastructure investment, improved trade conditions and stronger external buffers. Higher oil prices and increased domestic refining capacity are also providing support. As a result, the external position has strengthened as well,” it stated.
Global Context
The report comes amid growing attention on Africa's role in global crude supply as shifting trade patterns, refinery outages, and geopolitical tensions continue to reshape international energy flows. OPEC noted that refining margins weakened across major trading hubs in May. “Refining margins continued to trend downward on the U.S. Gulf Coast (USGC) and, more pronouncedly, in Singapore, as product tightness in both trading hubs eased, leading to middle distillate and naphtha pressure on gross product value.” The report, however, added that supply risks remained elevated in Europe due to refinery outages and product market pressures.
Asian Import Patterns
For Nigeria and other African exporters, changing Asian import patterns also remain critical to export sustainability. According to the report, India's crude imports recovered in April, as buyers tapped into a range of sources. OPEC added that Nigeria supplied about 236 thousand barrels per day (tb/d) to India during the period, alongside volumes from Venezuela, Brazil, and Iran. China's exports of refined products declined sharply due to domestic supply priorities and export restrictions.
Inflation and Currency
The report further warned that inflation and currency movements continued to influence oil price behavior globally.
