Only 41 percent of Nigerians are certain to vote in the 2027 presidential election and have already settled on a candidate, according to a national voting intentions survey released on Wednesday by election observation group Yiaga Africa. The poll, which covered 2,470 Nigerians across all 36 states and the Federal Capital Territory (FCT), found that while 84 percent of respondents said they were likely to vote, nearly half of registered voters remain undecided on who to support.
Voter Registration High, Confidence in INEC Low
The survey found that voter registration is near-universal, with 96 percent of adults surveyed saying they are already registered. However, confidence in the electoral process is thin. Only 34 percent of respondents said they believed the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) would conduct credible elections.
Safiya Bichi, head of knowledge management and learning at Yiaga Africa, said the findings showed that Nigerians had not lost faith in elections as a concept. “What stands between that willingness and the ballot box is fear, distrust and money,” Bichi said.
What Is Driving Voter Decisions
A desire for a change in leadership emerged as the dominant reason voters gave for going to the polls, cited by 49 percent of respondents. Civic duty came second at 20 percent, followed by support for a specific candidate at 16 percent and party loyalty at 11 percent.
The economy, jobs, security, corruption, and governance ranked as the issues voters care most about heading into 2027. Social media was the most influential source of information on voting decisions, at 58 percent, ahead of television at 46 percent, radio at 45 percent, and online news at 29 percent.
On turnout by region, the north-central zone recorded the highest voting intention at 57 percent, followed by the south-west at 54 percent, the north-east at 52 percent, and the south-south at 33 percent.
The Race for the Presidency
Presidential campaigns officially began in August but have so far struggled to build significant momentum. President Bola Tinubu of the All Progressives Congress (APC) is seeking a second term and faces competition from two of his main rivals from the 2023 election: Atiku Abubakar, now running on the African Democratic Congress (ADC) platform, and Peter Obi, who was ratified as the presidential candidate of the Nigeria Democratic Congress (NDC) on May 29, 2026.
The survey found that 54 percent of voters disapprove of Tinubu's performance in office. In an editorial published on October 1, The Economist said Tinubu could still win the election despite widespread public discontent, pointing to what it described as Nigeria's “complicated electoral dynamics” as a factor that may offset the headwinds from the security crisis, economic hardship, and competitive opposition candidates.
