Nigeria recorded an estimated $446.6 million loss in oil revenue in April despite a modest increase in production to 1.66 million barrels per day (bpd), as output remained below the Federal Government’s 2026 budget benchmark of 1.8 million bpd.
Navy Intensifies Pressure on Illegal Petroleum Networks
The Nigerian Navy has intensified pressure on illegal petroleum networks operating within the Niger Delta, following the discovery of a concealed fuel stockpile along the Rivers–Bayelsa border creek corridor. The operation, conducted under Operation Delta Sentinel (OPDS) by personnel of Nigerian Navy Ship (NNS) SOROH, was triggered by intelligence indicating suspicious movement of illegally refined petroleum products around Okarki Community waterside in Abua-Odual Local Council of Rivers.
Naval spokesman, Capt. Abiodun Folorunsho said personnel employed aerial surveillance, which exposed multiple sacks concealed within dense vegetation along the creek environment. Further exploitation of the location led to the recovery of approximately 3,800 litres of product suspected to be illegally refined Automotive Gas Oil (AGO) stored in 38 sacks. He noted that the operation highlighted the growing reliance of illegal fuel networks on isolated creek corridors and concealed transit points to temporarily warehouse products before onward movement through illicit distribution channels.
Production Figures and Shortfall
Data released by the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission (NUPRC) showed that the country produced a daily average of 1,663,413 barrels in April, comprising 1,488,540bpd of crude oil and 174,873bpd of condensates. The production level represents a 7.58 per cent increase compared to March, reflecting a gradual recovery in upstream operations. However, the improvement was insufficient to meet the government’s target, resulting in a production shortfall of 136,587bpd for the month.
Although the country met the Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) quota, cumulatively, the April production translated to a loss of about 4.1 million barrels, with an estimated revenue impact of $446.64 million when compared to the price of Brass and Qua Iboe, which traded at $109 to a barrel.
OPEC Compliance and Output Fluctuations
Further analysis of the NUPRC data indicates that Nigeria operated close to its quota under OPEC, achieving 99.2 per cent of its 1.5mbpd crude oil production ceiling. This suggests that while crude output remains constrained by OPEC limits, overall production gains were largely supported by condensate volumes, which are exempt from the quota. The commission also noted significant fluctuations in daily output during the month. Combined crude oil and condensate production peaked at 1.85mbpd, exceeding the national benchmark, while the lowest recorded level was 1.46mbpd.
This development indicates ongoing operational and infrastructure challenges, including pipeline disruptions and maintenance issues, which continue to affect consistency in production. In March 2026, Nigeria’s total oil production (crude and condensate) stood at 1.546mbpd, marking a 4.2 per cent increase from February.
Disruption of Illegal Refining Infrastructure
Meanwhile, Folorunsho said the Navy disrupted attempts by economic saboteurs to establish new illegal refining infrastructure within the Bonny axis of Rivers State following a targeted operation by personnel of Forward Operating Base (FOB) Bonny under OPDS. The Navy continues to intensify patrols and surveillance across the Niger Delta to curb oil theft and illegal refining activities that have plagued the region and undermined national revenue.
