Nigeria Moves to Restart Fuel Imports Amid Dangote Refinery Energy Challenges
The Federal Government of Nigeria is preparing to resume the issuance of petrol and diesel import permits by mid-February 2026, a significant policy shift that could reshape the country's downstream petroleum market. This development comes as the Dangote Refinery faces mounting challenges with declining crude oil deliveries and increasing petrol prices, creating potential supply concerns for the nation's energy sector.
Government Action on Import Permits
Industry sources indicate that approvals by the Nigerian Midstream and Downstream Petroleum Regulatory Authority (NMDPRA) may begin later this month or, at the latest, early March 2026. This would represent the first batch of import licences for the year, following a temporary regulatory pause that restricted imports to volumes needed only to cover gaps in domestic refining output.
The decision signals growing government concern about potential tightening of fuel supply amid shifting market conditions. Traditionally, import permits are issued on a quarterly basis and remain valid for three months, but issuing licences midway into the first quarter has raised questions among market participants about how the existing framework will be applied.
Dangote Refinery's Crude Supply Issues
Market pressure has intensified following a substantial drop in crude deliveries to the Dangote Refinery. Receipts reportedly fell to approximately 250,000 barrels per day in January, down from roughly 350,000 barrels per day in December, representing the lowest level in about sixteen months.
This decline points to lower run rates at the refinery's crude distillation unit and increases the likelihood of refined product shortfalls. Earlier reports indicated maintenance activities on key processing units, including the residue fluid catalytic cracking unit that produces petrol, contributing to the reduced capacity.
Rising Prices and Market Dynamics
Petrol asking prices climbed by about fourteen percent to N799 per litre by late January, after falling to around N699 per litre in December. The rebound has made imported fuel more competitive in recent trading sessions, renewing interest in imported cargoes despite earlier easing of demand during the Christmas and early January holidays.
Market participants believe new import permits would allow marketers to supplement domestic supply while regulators continue to prioritise local refining. However, increased imports could potentially dilute Dangote Refinery's growing dominance in the downstream market.
Dangote's Response and Price Warning
Amid the shifting landscape, the Dangote Refinery has issued a warning that petrol pump prices could approach N1,000 per litre if marketers increasingly rely on coastal transportation rather than gantry loading for fuel evacuation. In a statement, the refinery explained that coastal logistics can add about N75 per litre to petrol costs due to port charges, maritime levies and vessel-related expenses.
With Nigeria's daily consumption estimated at 50 million litres of petrol and 14 million litres of diesel, the extra cost could translate into an annual burden of roughly N1.75 trillion if passed on to consumers. The company stressed that gantry loading remains the most cost-efficient option and cautioned that widespread reliance on coastal shipping would undermine recent price relief achieved through domestic refining.
Regulatory Transition and Leadership Changes
Sources quoted by Argus have linked the delay in issuing permits to leadership changes at the NMDPRA following the exit of its former chief executive, Farouk Ahmed, in December. The transition reportedly slowed internal decision-making at the authority during the early weeks of the year, contributing to the timing of the import permit resumption.
Dangote's Long-Term Vision Amid Challenges
Despite near-term challenges, Dangote Industries Limited has reiterated its commitment to its Vision 2030 growth strategy. Group Chief Branding and Communication Officer, Anthony Chiejina, stated that the strategy targets $100 billion in revenue by 2030 and focuses on expanding capacity across energy, manufacturing and agriculture sectors.
Planned projects include:
- Increasing refinery capacity to 1.4 million barrels per day
- Expanding fertiliser output to 12 million metric tonnes annually
- Growing cement capacity to 90 million tonnes
- Deepening investments in agriculture, including six large-scale rice mills across northern states
The conglomerate is set to lead exhibitors at the 15th Gateway International Trade Fair in Ogun State, themed "Promoting Business through Partnership," demonstrating its continued commitment to Nigeria's economic development despite current energy sector challenges.
Dangote Refinery has noted that local refining has helped reduce petrol prices at filling stations across Nigeria, with the current rate at N839 per litre. While this represents an increase from the previous N739 per litre announced in December 2025, it still marks a substantial reduction from the N1,250 per litre Nigerians once paid, reflecting the company's ongoing commitment to improving domestic fuel supply and affordability.
