Regulator Issues Fresh Petrol Import Permits to Six Marketers
The Nigerian Midstream and Downstream Petroleum Regulatory Authority (NMDPRA) has authorized six depot owners and petroleum marketers to import Premium Motor Spirit (PMS), commonly known as petrol. According to industry sources, each importer received approval to bring in approximately 30,000 metric tonnes of petrol, a move analysts interpret as an effort to maintain balance in Nigeria's evolving fuel supply market.
Dangote Refinery's Overwhelming Market Share
This regulatory development occurs against the backdrop of recent industry reports indicating that the Dangote Petroleum Refinery supplied roughly 92% of Nigeria's petrol in February 2026. Available data shows that during that month, local refining produced about 36.5 million litres of petrol daily, while imported volumes contributed around 3 million litres per day, bringing the country's estimated total daily supply to nearly 39.5 million litres.
Currently, the Dangote refinery stands as the sole facility in Nigeria producing petrol on a significant scale, as many modular refineries in the country focus primarily on diesel output. This concentration has effectively positioned the Dangote facility at the center of Nigeria's fuel supply chain, granting it a dominant role in a market valued at approximately N14.4 trillion annually.
First Import Licenses Under Current Leadership
A senior industry source familiar with regulatory operations revealed that no importer had received petrol import permits under the current NMDPRA leadership until these recent approvals. This suggests a potential policy shift designed to preserve supply flexibility as Nigeria's downstream petroleum market undergoes transformation.
For years, Nigeria has depended heavily on petrol imports due to the prolonged shutdown of government-owned refineries in Port Harcourt, Warri, and Kaduna. However, the commencement of operations at the Dangote refinery has substantially reduced the country's reliance on imported fuel and fundamentally altered the supply structure within Nigeria's downstream petroleum industry.
Analysts Weigh In on Market Implications
Industry observers suggest the latest permits may signal the government's attempt to maintain supply stability while Nigeria gradually transitions toward stronger domestic refining capacity. Energy economist Wumi Iledare described the previous suspension of petrol imports as a strong policy signal in Nigeria's downstream oil sector but cautioned that abrupt regulatory shifts can sometimes encourage strategic behavior among market players.
According to Iledare, such signals could lead to precautionary stockpiling, opportunistic pricing, or competition for logistical advantages within the distribution network. He emphasized that regulators must provide clear guidance and ensure that local refining, distribution infrastructure, and pricing mechanisms are robust enough to consistently meet national demand.
Price Stability Concerns Remain
Despite the increased domestic production capacity, David Bird, managing director and chief executive officer of Dangote Petroleum Refinery, has indicated that petrol prices may not decline even as the refinery operates at full capacity. Bird cited volatility in global oil markets and rising supply chain costs as primary factors during a media chat on March 9, 2026.
He explained that the refinery operates within the international commodities market, which directly influences the cost of crude oil and refined products. According to Bird, the refinery purchases crude oil at global benchmark prices, including crude sourced locally under Nigeria's crude-for-naira programme, meaning domestic production doesn't necessarily guarantee lower prices for Nigerian consumers.
The NMDPRA's decision to grant these import permits represents a balancing act between supporting the growing domestic refining industry while ensuring adequate supply buffers remain in place. As Nigeria continues its transition from fuel importer to refining powerhouse, regulatory authorities face the complex challenge of managing market concentration risks while fostering energy security and price stability for the nation's consumers.
