Global energy security concerns and mounting economic pressures are prompting governments and investors to prioritise reliable hydrocarbon supply over the speed of an immediate energy transition, according to Oando PLC’s Group Chief Executive, Wale Tinubu.
Speaking during a BBC interview at the Africa CEO Forum, Tinubu noted that rising inflation, geopolitical instability, and energy supply disruptions are compelling countries to reassess how quickly they can shift away from hydrocarbons while maintaining economic stability and energy access.
He explained that successive global crises—from the COVID-19 pandemic to the Russia-Ukraine war and the ongoing Middle East conflict—have placed governments under increasing economic strain, reducing their ability to heavily subsidise renewable energy transitions.
“The inflationary impact we’re going to experience is not going to allow governments to have the funding to subsidise the drive into renewables,” Tinubu said. “I expect that hydrocarbon demand is increasing. The evidence is there that capital is moving back into hydrocarbons and people realise that energy security is a lot more important now than energy transition.”
Tinubu highlighted that this shift in global priorities coincides with developing economies facing significant energy deficits and rising industrialisation needs, particularly across Africa and Asia. He argued that demand fundamentals for hydrocarbons, especially gas, remain strong because large parts of the developing world still require affordable and reliable energy to bolster economic growth and improve living standards.
“There’s already demand coming out of Asia and across Africa,” he said. “Developing countries have a huge gap to meet over the next couple of years, and so there’s major demand for products, particularly gas. It’s just a question of filling that demand.”
Beyond demand growth, Tinubu also pointed to changing perceptions regarding geopolitical energy security and the strategic positioning of African producers. He noted that recent tensions around the Strait of Hormuz have weakened the assumption that traditional hydrocarbon-producing regions automatically offer greater supply stability, creating an opportunity for African producers to enhance their relevance in global markets.
“The premium that the Arab Gulf got for safety has been demystified,” Tinubu said. He added that Africa’s strategic trade routes, substantial undeveloped reserves, and improving investment climate position the continent favourably as countries seek more diversified and secure energy supply options.
For Oando, the evolving global energy landscape reinforces the company’s long-term growth ambitions and investment strategy. The company is currently pursuing production growth targets to increase oil output to 100,000 barrels per day and gas production to 1.5 billion cubic feet per day by 2030. Wale Tinubu noted that growing global demand, particularly for gas, aligns with Oando’s broader strategy to deepen its role in supporting both domestic energy access and international supply needs.
These comments come amid a growing global debate over the pace and practicality of energy transition strategies, especially for developing economies balancing climate ambitions with industrial growth, inflationary pressures, and energy security concerns. While renewable energy investment remains important, Tinubu suggested that recent global developments have reinforced the continued strategic relevance of hydrocarbons, particularly as countries seek stable and affordable energy sources to sustain economic activity.
