Over a month after Nigeria came under China's zero-tariff arrangement, concerns linger about the policy's benefits, as non-oil exports remain dominated by raw commodities, while the underlying operational challenges bedevilling non-export businesses have yet to be resolved.
Key Challenges Identified
Already, issues bordering on the Rules of Origin (RoO) and Quota goods have been cited as areas requiring clarification for exporters to take advantage of the zero-tariff policy. For quota-controlled goods, only the in-quota tariff rate is reduced to zero, while out-of-quota rates remain unchanged, giving China a regulatory lever to manage total import volumes. Most Nigerian exporters lack the compliance infrastructure to circumvent this.
Before this latest policy, roughly 70 per cent of African exports to China already entered duty-free, with another 22 per cent facing tariffs below five per cent. Considering this, some stakeholders have noted that tariffs have not been the primary limitation as export competitiveness depends on consistent quality, certification standards, logistics efficiency and access to working capital; none of which tariff removal addresses.
Analysts Warn of Limited Near-Term Impact
Analysts have warned that the impact of the policy may be limited in the near term, as most African exports to China are primary commodities that already face very minimal tariffs. Despite these structural imbalances, some experts have called on Nigeria, as well as other African nations, to move beyond raw material exports and accelerate industrialisation following China's expanded zero-tariff policy for African goods.
Speaking at a webinar, 'Beyond Zero Tariffs: Unlocking Africa's Strategic Position in China–Africa Trade' organised by the Africa-China Centre for Policy and Advisory (ACCPA), they stressed that exporting unprocessed commodities will not deliver long-term economic transformation.
Expert Recommendations
A China-Africa economic relations expert, Xiaoyang Tang, urged Nigeria, Ghana, Egypt, South Africa and Kenya in particular, to adopt targeted strategies that promote processing and manufacturing. Noting that it is about industrial complementarity, he emphasised that Africa must integrate into broader production ecosystems rather than remain a supplier of raw materials.
Other speakers highlighted multiple sectors where value addition could unlock significant gains, including processed agricultural products such as cocoa and coffee; textile and apparel manufacturing; green minerals and emerging industrial materials, as well as creative and cultural industries.
Professor Wang Jinjie stressed that meeting Chinese quality standards and regulatory requirements will be critical for African exporters seeking to access the market. Case studies such as Tanzania's special economic zones were cited as examples of how value addition can transform export profiles.
Senior Research Fellow of the ACCPA, Rosemary Mnongya, pointed to the development of products like avocado oil as evidence of how local processing can increase export value. Similarly, international relations and global affairs expert, Dr Mikatekiso Kubaya, stressed that deeper industrial cooperation with China could enhance Africa's resilience to global economic shocks.
Nigeria-China Trade Imbalance
It is key to note that while Nigeria-China trade hovered around $24 billion in 2025, the imbalance is clear as China supplied about 35 per cent of all goods entering Nigeria, hitting roughly $20 billion of the total trade figure. Nigerian exporters have historically faced challenges in competing effectively in international markets due not just to tariff barriers, but to logistics costs and quality compliance requirements.
Experts insist that to fully maximise the benefits of the zero-tariff policy, Nigerian exporters must strictly comply with China's quality standards and market requirements, a bar that Nigeria's agro-processing and manufacturing sectors have consistently struggled to clear due to inadequate value-addition infrastructure and poor post-harvest systems.
Narrow Export Basket
Nigeria's export basket to China remains dangerously narrow. Exports to China have grown, rising 81 per cent over three years to $3.17 billion in 2025, but the bulk of Nigeria's external trade generally remains energy-related, accounting for over 90 per cent of total shipments.
The products most likely to benefit from zero tariffs, sesame, ginger, cashew, cocoa, and cassava, require processing, certification, and logistics capacity that the country hasn't built at scale. To date, just one recorded shipment has happened under the agreement and it was for bone pellets.
Way Forward
While the policy removes a major barrier to entry, experts have cautioned that market access alone is not enough. Without investments in infrastructure, skills, and industrial capacity, they said African economies risk remaining locked in low-value export cycles. They pointed out that Nigeria needs processing capacity, export certification systems and logistics reform, not just a tariff concession, before it can convert China's goodwill into sustained trade gains.
Kubaya added that while the zero-tariff initiative presents a window for structural transformation, its success will depend on how effectively African countries respond. 'For the textile sector in particular, the opportunity lies not just in exporting raw cotton or fabrics, but in building integrated manufacturing ecosystems that can compete globally. As global trade dynamics continue to shift, the future of Africa-China trade will be defined not by volume, but by value,' he said.
