The Political Intelligence Group (PIG) has released a forecast projecting that Atiku Abubakar, former Vice President of Nigeria, would win nine states in the 2027 presidential election, based on political conditions prevailing as of Tuesday, September 1, 2026. The forecast, published by Politico.ng and reported by Legit.ng, places President Bola Ahmed Tinubu in the strongest position with 20 states, while Peter Obi of the Nigeria Democratic Congress (NDC) is projected to win eight states.
PIG's Projection: Tinubu Leads, Atiku Second, Obi Third
Under the PIG scenario, Tinubu holds a firm grip on the south-west and is credited with wins outside his home region, giving him a clear numerical advantage over his rivals. Atiku, on the other hand, is projected to perform strongly in the north, with Kaduna State and several states in the North-East and North-West listed among his projected wins.
The states PIG tipped Atiku to win are: Sokoto, Kebbi, Niger, Katsina, Kaduna, Jigawa, Gombe, Adamawa, and Taraba. This distribution reflects Atiku's established political network and history of presidential campaigns, according to PIG, which noted his ability to mobilise support across the northern region.
Factors Shaping Atiku's Projected Support
PIG linked Atiku's northern strength to his position on fuel subsidy, as he has called for a review of current policy and spoken about reducing the burden of petrol prices on Nigerians. If transport costs and the broader cost of living remain pressing concerns by 2027, that message could appeal to voters seeking relief from rising household expenses.
However, the group cautioned that the subsidy debate is more complex than a promise of cheaper petrol. Voters are likely to ask where the funding would come from and whether such a policy would be financially sustainable, making government revenue and public spending potential campaign flashpoints.
Religion and ethnicity may also shape Atiku's support in certain areas, though the group said these factors could not be assumed to determine every voter's choice. His overall performance could ultimately depend on whether he can combine northern backing with meaningful support from other parts of the country.
What Could Change Before 2027 Election
PIG was direct in saying its forecast should not be read as the final result of the election. The actual vote remains months away, leaving considerable time for the political landscape to shift.
The economy could improve or worsen, new alliances could form, and candidates could gain or lose popularity. Tinubu would likely defend his administration's economic direction, while Atiku's subsidy position could become a significant talking point on the campaign trail.
For now, the projection places Tinubu ahead with 20 states, Atiku second with nine, and Obi third with eight. Whether those numbers hold or a major realignment follows will become clearer as the campaign season unfolds.
Atiku Urged to Back Obi
Earlier, Legit.ng reported that a senior official of the NDC publicly urged Atiku to withdraw from the 2027 presidential race and throw his weight behind NDC candidate Obi. Theo Abu Agada, the party's director of new media and strategic communications, made the call in a post on X.
Agada praised Atiku's character and vision while maintaining that the time had come for him to step away from presidential ambitions in the interest of the wider opposition. This development adds another layer to the evolving dynamics as political parties intensify preparations ahead of the 2027 general elections.
