Yiaga Africa Survey Exposes Low Public Trust in INEC Ahead of 2027 Elections
Civil society organization Yiaga Africa has released a comprehensive national survey revealing that only 45 percent of Nigerians express confidence in the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) to conduct credible elections ahead of the 2027 general polls. This finding comes from Yiaga Africa's National Voting Intentions Survey, Round One, which was published on Thursday, January 22, 2026, highlighting significant concerns about electoral integrity as the country prepares for another major democratic exercise.
Survey Methodology and National Representation
The survey was conducted through telephone interviews with 1,500 respondents across all 36 states and the Federal Capital Territory between December 1 and 5, 2025. Yiaga Africa emphasized that the survey is nationally representative, with a 95 percent confidence level and a margin of error of ±4.26 percent, providing a robust snapshot of public sentiment nearly two years before the scheduled elections.
High Voter Enthusiasm Amidst Growing Security Apprehensions
Despite the low level of trust in INEC, the report showed remarkably strong voter interest in the forthcoming elections, with 77 percent of respondents indicating they were likely or very likely to vote in 2027. However, Yiaga Africa warned that this democratic enthusiasm could be seriously undermined by growing insecurity and widespread fears of electoral violence across the nation.
"This tension between democratic aspiration and security apprehension defines the current electoral environment," the report stated. "The challenge for 2027 is ensuring that the 77% who want to vote can actually do so safely and with confidence in the process."
Sharp Regional Disparities in Voting Intentions
The survey uncovered significant regional variations in voting intentions that reveal deeper concerns about election credibility and safety. The north-west region recorded the highest intention to vote at 67 percent, followed by the north-east at 45 percent. In stark contrast, enthusiasm was lowest in the south-south at 29 percent and the south-east at just 25 percent.
Yiaga Africa noted that regions with higher voting intentions also expressed heightened concerns about security and electoral violence, suggesting that willingness to participate does not necessarily translate to confidence in the electoral process.
Key Factors Influencing Voting Decisions
According to the detailed report, security concerns and the quality of candidates emerged as the leading factors influencing voting intentions, each cited by 21 percent of respondents. Economic conditions followed closely at 17 percent, indicating that Nigerians are prioritizing both safety and leadership competence as they consider their electoral choices.
Yiaga Africa emphasized that these findings place greater responsibility on political parties to ensure transparent and credible nomination processes ahead of the 2027 elections, as voter decisions appear increasingly tied to candidate quality and security considerations.
Regional Trust Disparities and Credibility Concerns
The organization observed a sharp contrast in trust levels across the country's geopolitical zones. While confidence in INEC was relatively higher in northern Nigeria, distrust was most pronounced in the south-south and south-east regions, creating a concerning credibility gap as the nation approaches the 2027 polls.
"Although 76% of Nigerians believe their vote can influence election outcomes, only 45% express confidence in INEC's ability to conduct credible elections," the report stated. "This differential trust pattern could significantly influence perceptions of election credibility in 2027."
Calls for Comprehensive Electoral Reforms and Security Measures
In response to these findings, Yiaga Africa issued urgent recommendations for strengthening Nigeria's electoral framework. The organization urged security agencies to deploy comprehensive election security frameworks, particularly in high-risk areas, to protect voters and election officials from potential violence and intimidation.
The civil society group also called on INEC to strengthen the integrity of the voter register and undertake confidence-building initiatives in regions with low trust levels. Yiaga Africa warned that public confidence would be critical to voter turnout and the overall credibility of the 2027 general election, emphasizing that electoral reforms must address both procedural integrity and public perception.
The survey results arrive at a crucial juncture in Nigeria's democratic journey, highlighting the complex interplay between voter enthusiasm, security concerns, and institutional trust as the country prepares for what could be a defining electoral contest in 2027.
