The African Democratic Congress (ADC) Presidential Campaign Council has rejected a forecast by The Economist that President Bola Ahmed Tinubu of the All Progressives Congress (APC) is positioned to win the 2027 presidential election. The Economist published an analysis on October 1 suggesting that Tinubu could win re-election in January 2027 despite widespread public dissatisfaction.
ADC's Response to The Economist's Forecast
Phrank Shaibu, Director of Strategic Communication of the ADC Presidential Campaign Council, insisted that no prediction can substitute for what Nigerians will decide at the ballot box. As reported by Vanguard, Shaibu made the party's position clear in a published article titled "No forecast can overrule the people: Nigerians will elect Atiku and vote out Tinubu."
"These factors matter. But they are not the same as public consent, and none can tell us how Nigerians will vote in January. A forecast is not a verdict," Shaibu wrote. He argued that Nigerians judge the economy on daily lived experience, not statistical measures. "Nigerians measure the economy by what their income can buy, what they must go without and whether they can provide a decent life for their families," he said.
ADC Challenges Low Voter Turnout Argument
Shaibu also took aim at the suggestion that low voter participation in the 2023 presidential election would benefit an incumbent in 2027. He said the reduced turnout recorded that year likely reflected apathy, insecurity, distrust, and logistical barriers, or the belief that votes would not count, rather than satisfaction with the ruling party.
"Tinubu won the election; he did not receive the votes of most registered voters," he said. Shaibu added that low participation should not be read as evidence of majority support for the incumbent.
What The Economist Said
In its October 1 report, The Economist acknowledged that deteriorating security, the pain of ongoing economic reforms, and a growing field of political challengers would ordinarily work against Tinubu's re-election chances. Despite this, it suggested the president retains meaningful advantages.
The publication pointed to incumbency as a key factor, noting that Nigerian presidents have historically benefited from access to ruling party machinery and financial resources that allow them to distribute patronage ahead of elections. It also flagged religion, saying that running on a Muslim-Muslim ticket could help Tinubu consolidate votes in the North.
Regional identity was identified as another variable. Although many voters in the South-West have grown disillusioned with the Tinubu administration, his status as a son of the region may still command loyalty at the polls. The Economist also warned that economic growth projected at 4.1% for the year may not translate into tangible improvements for ordinary Nigerians, leaving many voters disappointed. Yet, it suggested, that disappointment may not necessarily drive them to the polls to remove him.
Polymarket Predicts Nigeria's 2027 Presidential Election Winner
Meanwhile, Legit.ng also reported that prediction market on Polymarket placed Tinubu ahead of all other 2027 presidential contenders with a market-implied probability of about 73%. Peter Obi, the NDC's 2027 presidential candidate, came second on the platform at around 25%, while Sowore, Kwankwaso and Amaechi trailed far behind.
The market has recorded about $128,600 in trading volume since it opened on June 2, 2026, but Atiku is notably absent from its listed outcomes, despite featuring Kwankwaso and Amaechi, who have dropped their ambition and are now running mates.
