Ekiti 2026: Can a Coalition of 12 Opposition Parties Upset APC's Dominance?
With campaigns officially underway for the June 20, 2026, governorship election in Ekiti State, only the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC) and Governor Biodun Oyebanji have actively taken to the campaign trail. In stark contrast, the 12 political parties and their candidates have remained largely silent, sparking concerns that the forthcoming poll may gradually slide into a one-party contest without a cohesive opposition coalition. This development, reported by Ayodele Afolabi, highlights an unprecedented political lull in the state's history.
Historical Context of Ekiti Gubernatorial Elections
Since Ekiti State was created 30 years ago, preparations for its gubernatorial elections have never been as dull and uninspiring as those for the scheduled June 20, 2026, contest. The Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) cleared political parties to commence campaigns on January 21, 2026, yet opposition parties appear largely inactive, effectively leaving the field to the ruling APC and its candidate, Governor Biodun Oyebanji. Barring any last-minute shifts, the contest risks tilting towards a one-sided race.
Looking back at the history of Ekiti State gubernatorial elections, the contests have consistently been highly competitive since 1999, with multiple parties and candidates vying for power. In 1999, Otunba Niyi Adebayo of the now-defunct Alliance for Democracy (AD) emerged victorious, defeating the PDP candidate with a decisive 72.72 per cent of the votes, totalling 300,118 ballots. The 2003 election, however, witnessed a reversal of fortunes as Ayo Fayose of the PDP narrowly defeated Adebayo in a closely fought contest.
Four years later, in 2007, Olusegun Oni of the PDP won the governorship, but the election was later annulled by the Appeal Court, prompting a rerun. In 2010, Kayode Fayemi of the then Action Congress of Nigeria (ACN), now part of the APC, was declared governor by the Appeal Court, only to be unseated four years later by Fayose of the PDP. Fayemi made a dramatic return to power in 2018 under the APC, defeating Fayose's preferred candidate, Professor Olusola Eleka of the PDP.
The 2022 Ekiti governorship election marked a new chapter in the state's political landscape. For the first time, a sitting governor, Fayemi, handed over power to a successor, Biodun Oyebanji. In a keenly contested poll, the PDP was relegated to third place, while Olusegun Oni, then the candidate of the Social Democratic Party (SDP), came second.
Current Political Dynamics and Opposition Challenges
With such a competitive history, the forthcoming 2026 contest looks markedly different. Most of the major contenders and stakeholders that featured prominently in past elections are now aligned with the APC, pledging support for Oyebanji. Those remaining in the opposition appear either financially constrained to mount a serious challenge or politically weakened, as reflected in their silence.
The PDP, regarded as the major opposition party, has been embroiled in a protracted crisis. The party's inability to resolve its internal disputes has fuelled speculation that its members may either boycott the election or tacitly support the ruling party if they eventually participate. The party's candidate, Dr Wole Oluyede, who was initially excluded by the commission in the published list of candidates, recently secured relief from a Federal High Court in Abuja, directing INEC to reinstate him.
Other opposition parties, including the African Democratic Congress (ADC), Accord Party, Young Progressives Party (YPP), Social Democratic Party (SDP), New Nigeria People's Party (NNPP), and Labour Party, are reportedly forming a Rainbow Coalition to challenge the ruling APC. However, their efforts are being hampered by a lack of visibility and resources. Although details of the coalition's structure and operations remain unclear, nothing concrete has emerged from ongoing discussions, leaving its prospects uncertain.
The candidates within the proposed coalition include Dare Bejide of the ADC, a former Nigerian High Commissioner to Canada; Opeyemi Falegan of the Accord Party; Daramola Owoola of the YPP; David Bankole of the SDP; Blessing Abegunde of the NNPP; and Professor Oyebanji Olajuyin of the Labour Party. As it stands, there are no visible campaign billboards, posters, media engagements, or inaugurations of opposition party campaign councils. Little or nothing suggests that these parties are actively in the race against the ruling party.
Incumbency Advantages and Financial Disparities
In addition, the prevailing political dynamics place the ruling APC and Governor Oyebanji in a position of clear advantage. Central to this is the power of incumbency, which provides the governor with access to entrenched political structures across the state's 16 local government areas and 177 wards, alongside stronger grassroots mobilisation and the visibility of ongoing development projects.
Equally significant is the relative unity within the APC, reinforced by Oyebanji's alignment with key figures such as former governors Fayemi, Fayose, Adebayo, Oni and the broader South-West political bloc loyal to President Bola Tinubu's re-election agenda. This cohesion stands in sharp contrast to the disarray within the opposition, particularly PDP, which continues to grapple with internal divisions, leadership disputes, and weak coordination.
Beyond the PDP, opposition parties remain fragmented, with smaller parties lacking the organisational strength and resources to consolidate anti-incumbent votes into a viable electoral force. These structural advantages are further reinforced by the provisions of the Electoral Act 2026, particularly on campaign financing. Under Section 92 of the Act, governorship candidates are prohibited from spending more than N3 billion on campaigns, while individual and organisational donations are capped at N500 million.
Although designed to promote fairness and curb excessive spending, the practical realities of Nigerian politics mean that running a competitive statewide campaign still requires substantial financial resources. In this context, only Oyebanji appears to be in a better position to mobilise funds within the legal limits, given his established networks and access to wealthy donors. The incumbent governor, in particular, stands to benefit from stronger financial backing from the Presidency, 30 governors of APC, party stakeholders and political allies who view his candidacy as secure.
Conversely, opposition candidates, especially from smaller parties, may struggle to raise the funds needed for effective campaigns, including media visibility, rallies, and grassroots outreach. This financial disparity, combined with weak enforcement concerns, suggests that money politics may still play a decisive role. Taken together, the interplay of incumbency, party cohesion, elite support, and funding dynamics under the Electoral Act significantly tilts the electoral balance in favour of Oyebanji and the APC.
Stakeholder Perspectives and Grassroots Realities
One of the party stakeholders in Ekiti, Dr Wole Balogun, expressed concern that despite INEC's approval for campaigns to commence, the opposition has remained largely inactive. Balogun noted that the June 20 governorship election appears to be a walkover for the incumbent governor, describing the current situation as unprecedented in the state's political history. According to him, Ekiti governorship elections, once among the most fiercely contested and controversial in Nigeria, have become unusually dull and monotonous since January when INEC lifted the ban on campaigning.
He referenced the intense battles that characterised previous elections, including the one that produced the incumbent governor, to underscore his point. Findings from fieldwork conducted by reporters across Ado-Ekiti and other parts of the state suggest that opposition parties may struggle to raise the substantial funds required for campaigns, particularly given the requirement to pay N50 million into government coffers before erecting billboards.
Apart from billboards and posters, candidates are expected to campaign across 177 wards in 16 local government areas to market their manifestos, a task that demands significant financial resources, especially in an election where money plays a crucial role. In sharp contrast, the APC has consolidated its support base behind Governor Oyebanji, who emerged as the party's consensus candidate. The governor has been credited with executing development projects and improving governance in the state.
The party has also inaugurated a 57-member Campaign Council for the election. Furthermore, APC campaign materials, including billboards and posters, are prominently displayed across the state capital and other local government areas, while supporters dominate social media platforms, canvassing for votes. Amid this seemingly unchallenged political momentum, Oyebanji recently declared confidence in victory, stating that his party is targeting 600,000 votes for President Bola Tinubu in the 2027 presidential election, hence the need for vigorous mobilisation.
"I know we have won the election; that is not my concern. We are here because of President Bola Tinubu. We cannot deliver for him with just 300,000 votes; we need up to 600,000 because some states will be casting over one million votes," he said.
At the inauguration of the campaign council on Monday, March 10, 2026, Senate Leader Opeyemi Bamidele, who chairs the Ekiti APC Governorship Campaign, described the June 20 election as a referendum on Oyebanji's leadership, citing his administration's strategic development initiatives. "As a party of vision and conviction, we have set clear targets ahead of the 2027 elections. We aim to mobilise at least 10 million votes for President Bola Ahmed Tinubu across the six South-West states," he said.
Bamidele stressed the need for aggressive voter mobilisation, noting that despite Ekiti's estimated population of 3.8 million, only 987,647 voters were registered as of 2023. Oyebanji, however, cautioned against complacency, urging party members to intensify grassroots mobilisation through house-to-house campaigns to achieve a target of at least 500,000 votes.
Opposition Counterarguments and Path to Victory
But dismissing the myth built around Oyebanji and the APC in Ekiti, the PDP candidate, Oluyede, said the ruling APC's inherent advantage and the incumbent governor's are mere media-driven narratives that do not reflect the realities on the ground. Outlining the PDP's path to victory, he pointed to what he described as the underwhelming performance of the APC-led administration, arguing that discontent across key sectors could shape voter sentiment.
He also hinged his optimism on the zoning argument, particularly the growing agitation for power shift to the South Senatorial District. Oluyede, who hails from the district, noted that it remains the most populous in the state, with over 400,000 registered voters across six local governments, yet has not produced a governor in 26 years of democratic rule. The sentiment for rotation, he argued, could prove decisive.
His roots in Ikere, the second-largest town in Ekiti, are also seen as a strategic advantage. He further maintained that the PDP remains the only opposition party with a viable grassroots structure capable of mounting a serious challenge, adding that his personal political capital and cross-party relationships strengthen his candidacy. A familiar figure in Ekiti politics, Oluyede's experience spans multiple platforms, having been a founding member of the APC before contesting the 2022 governorship election under the ADC.
He also enjoys the backing of a coalition of smaller parties, with candidates from eight political platforms reportedly adopting him under the "Rainbow Coalition" banner. Despite these claims, the overall political landscape suggests a challenging road ahead for the opposition, as they navigate financial constraints, internal divisions, and the formidable incumbency of the APC.
