Political Analyst Forecasts Peter Obi's Potential Exit from ADC Ahead of 2027 Elections
In a detailed analysis of Nigeria's evolving political landscape, public affairs commentator Jide Ojo has projected that former Labour Party presidential candidate Peter Obi might abandon the African Democratic Congress (ADC) if he fails to secure the party's presidential nomination for the 2027 general elections. This prediction comes amid growing speculation about the internal dynamics within the opposition coalition as key political figures position themselves for the upcoming electoral contest.
Atiku's Potential Advantage in ADC Primaries
During a recent television interview, Ojo highlighted the significant advantage that former Vice President Atiku Abubakar could enjoy during the ADC's presidential primaries. The analyst specifically noted that indirect primary elections would likely favour Atiku, given his extensive political network and financial resources within party politics.
"Rumour mill has it that Atiku has been a very good benevolent spender when it comes to party primaries," Ojo stated, emphasizing the former vice president's reputation for strategic financial investments in political processes. He further explained that if the ADC adopts indirect primaries, Atiku's influence could prove decisive in determining the party's flagbearer.
Obi's Determination to Lead, Not Follow
The analyst recalled Peter Obi's public declarations about his presidential ambitions, noting that the former Anambra governor has consistently emphasized his unwillingness to play a secondary role in any political arrangement. "If somebody says, 'I will be on the ballot,' it is only the prime candidate, the candidate of the party, that will be given the certificate of return," Ojo explained, interpreting Obi's statements as a clear indication that he intends to be the principal candidate rather than a running mate or subordinate figure.
Ojo elaborated that this mindset could prompt Obi to seek alternative political platforms if he perceives that the ADC's presidential ticket might elude him. "Assuming, without conceding that in a free and fair primaries in ADC Atiku emerges, I can see Peter Obi likely going to leave the African Democratic Congress for another party," the analyst predicted during his television appearance.
Contrasting Defection Impacts
An interesting contrast emerged in Ojo's analysis regarding the political momentum generated by both politicians' recent defections to the ADC. He noted that Peter Obi's move from the Labour Party to the ADC on December 31, 2025, created significant political waves, attracting numerous lawmakers to join him in the transition.
"I watched the live transmission of his defection, and on that day, at least four senators from the South-East, about 16 House of Representatives members, and an indeterminable number of state House of Assembly members said they were defecting with him," Ojo recounted, highlighting the substantial political capital Obi brought to the ADC.
In stark contrast, Atiku Abubakar's defection to the ADC in November 2025 failed to generate similar legislative support. "When Atiku Abubakar defected weeks before, toward the end of November, I didn't see any serving lawmaker or governor defecting with him," the analyst observed, suggesting different levels of political influence between the two contenders.
ADC's Internal Dynamics and Potential Consequences
The analyst's projections come amid increasing tension within the ADC as the party prepares for what promises to be a fiercely contested presidential primary. Both Obi and Atiku represent heavyweight political figures with substantial followings, setting the stage for a potentially divisive nomination process.
Ojo acknowledged that despite the concerns about primary outcomes, Peter Obi has injected renewed energy and excitement into the opposition coalition since joining the ADC. His ability to attract cross-party defections demonstrates significant political appeal that could reshape Nigeria's opposition landscape ahead of the 2027 elections.
The analyst's assessment aligns with earlier warnings from other political observers about potential internal conflicts within the ADC. Some commentators have suggested that the party could experience significant defections and internal strife depending on which candidate ultimately secures the presidential nomination, particularly if the selection process is perceived as unfair or dominated by financial considerations.
Broader Implications for Nigeria's Political Landscape
This analysis underscores the fluid nature of Nigeria's political alliances as the 2027 elections approach. The potential movement of major political figures between parties reflects ongoing realignments within the opposition as various factions seek to consolidate support and challenge the ruling party's dominance.
Ojo's projections highlight several critical factors that could influence Nigeria's next presidential race:
- The role of financial resources in party primaries
- The impact of defection strategies on political momentum
- The importance of candidate selection processes in maintaining party unity
- The evolving dynamics within Nigeria's opposition coalition
As political calculations continue to evolve, analysts will closely monitor whether Peter Obi maintains his position within the ADC or seeks alternative political platforms to pursue his presidential ambitions. The coming months will likely reveal whether the ADC can successfully manage the competing ambitions of its high-profile members or whether internal conflicts will prompt further political realignments ahead of the 2027 elections.
