The replacement of Wale Edun as Minister of Finance and Coordinating Minister of the Economy, and the elevation of the recently appointed Minister of State for Finance, Taiwo Oyedele, marked not just a routine cabinet reshuffle, but one that should necessarily go to the heart of the economy. While the change of baton raises questions about technocratic competence and possible political backlash, it is important that whatever strides the government might have taken during economic reform are not reversed to the detriment of Nigerians. And the government should constantly bear in mind that, beyond the security of Nigerians, guaranteeing their welfare is an economic charge that will define the relevance of leaders.
The decision to rejig the finance ministry came a month short of three years into the fiscal reforms that started on May 29, 2023. Secondly, the burden of executing the reform rests fully with the office. Also, the sequencing and chain of events leading to the reshuffle, including the redeployment of Edun’s ex-assistant, Dr Doris Uzoka-Anite, suggests an intention to overhaul the entire functioning of the federal treasury. Cabinet roles are not tenured positions, while occupants serve at the pleasure of the President, who owes nobody any explanation when he decides an official does not deserve his or her spot in the circle.
For an administration seeking to impress Nigerians about the integrity of its economic choices, President Bola Tinubu’s fringe cabinet reshuffle as he heads into his re-election campaign is hardly surprising. But there is also a risk in casually replacing personnel, a reason the President must be intentional in making necessary changes. For instance, what use is replacing a duck with a gander when what is required to get the job done is an eagle? This calls for a thorough cost and benefit analysis, with the overall impact on governance being the ultimate gauge.
The dust raised by Edun’s exit was not unexpected, with many people relying on recent public engagement to read the President’s mind. For instance, he had told the Senate that the Federal Government could miss the 2025 revenue target by roughly N30 trillion, a statement that contradicted an earlier assurance by the President that the country was making sufficient revenue to fund its activities. There were also reports about how the then finance minister’s fiscal rationing, including his perceived failure to release funds budgeted for the Lagos-Calabar coastal road and the Sokoto-Badagry highway – two projects being handled by Hitech Construction (Nig) Limited – strained the cordial relationship Edun enjoyed with the President. Hitech is owned by Gilbert Chagoury, a businessman perceived as Tinubu’s long-standing friend. The Chagoury’s narrative brings to the fore concern about how official decisions are influenced by personal interest and the overriding cost of excessive personalisation of public offices.
If, indeed, Edun complained that the funding of the two projects compromised the country’s fiscal stability and had an undue impact on resources available for more pressing needs, was he acting in good faith to shield the country from crisis as the head of treasury or merely using his official privilege to pursue his personal agenda? These clarifications are necessary notwithstanding the President’s prerogative in sacking and replacing him. If, indeed, the ex-cabinet resigned based on poor health as the President’s spokesperson, Bayo Onanuga, disclosed, he would set a noble precedent in a country where officials hold on to power till they draw their last breath, even when their strength fails them. His office as minister of finance afforded him access to the best medical facilities in the world. But in choosing to step aside for a more agile technocrat, Edun may have demonstrated that, after all, he had placed public good above personal gain in his public service, a rare virtue his contemporaries must emulate.
Indeed, the transition points to a deeper, recurring tension in governance – the struggle to balance political convenience with the discipline required to achieve sustainable reform. At a moment when the economy is strained by renewed inflation fear and fiscal crisis struggle, the change raises a fundamental concern: Can it truly move from episodic reform to sustained fiscal re-engineering? Three years is an entry point into a medium-term horizon and provides a lens for a thorough review of the reforms. Change of personnel could be the beginning of policy resets, which makes investors’ fears reasonable. The reassurance by Oyedele last week that reforms would be sustained was most apt and suggested that the path to the future is not uncertain.
Yet, this is the time to build on the macro gains. The “measurable outcome” the new minister referred to when he spoke at the Nigerian Economic Summit Group (NESG) event must include, substantially, how the reforms translate to welfare improvement, that is, the dining table. The reinvigorated national economic management team must henceforth begin to factor the living conditions of the average Nigerian into the fiscal equation. They have reason to celebrate a rich macroeconomic outlook that leaves more Nigerians in abject poverty. If the current reform succeeds, it would not be because the output level is larger but because more youth can get jobs and more households can afford three square meals a day.
There is already a dangerous presumption – that Oyedele, who had worked with the government to put in place a framework to fix its tattered tax revenue, is being promoted to expand tax proceeds. The government must determine the level of tax rates that optimise its revenue. Higher tax rates do not necessarily mean more revenue, as additional taxes could have a decay effect on both revenue and the economy. Besides, only the living pay taxes. These are not nuggets but revenue mobilisation lessons the government cannot ignore at this critical time. Going forward, the reforms must be solid in fiscal stability. But they should be bigger in ease of doing business and in supporting vulnerable households, not in rhetoric but in action. Nigeria cannot continue with a patchwork of business suppression under any guise in the name of reform and expect a bigger public purse. The new economic team should begin its work on actionable plans to bottom-up the process to see every financially viable sector of Nigeria as a block for building an improved economy.
