The Political Intelligence Group (PIG) of Politico.ng has released a projection indicating that President Bola Tinubu would win 20 states in the 2027 presidential election if the vote were held under current conditions. The Lagos-based research body also forecast that former Vice President Atiku Abubakar would secure nine states, while Labour Party candidate Peter Obi would take eight states plus the Federal Capital Territory (FCT).
As reported by Vanguard, the assessment forms part of PIG's analysis of Nigeria's evolving political landscape. The group emphasised that the figures represent a snapshot of the current balance of forces and do not constitute a prediction of the final result.
Projection Reflects Current Political Realities
PIG stated that the APC and President Tinubu would currently have the advantage based on existing political realities and alignments. However, the group cautioned that the projection is not a declaration of the eventual outcome, noting that significant changes could occur before 2027.
"If the election were held today, based on the political realities and alignments currently on the ground, the APC and President Tinubu would have the advantage," the group said. "However, this is a projection of the current situation, not a declaration of the eventual result. A lot can happen between now and 2027."
Tinubu's Projected Strength in South-West and Beyond
The forecast places Tinubu firmly in control of all six South-West states, reflecting the political infrastructure he has built over decades in the region, particularly in Lagos. Beyond the South-West, the projection also puts Kano, one of Nigeria's most populous states, in his column, a result that would signal meaningful support outside his traditional base.
PIG identified the economy as a potentially defining variable in the contest. "If economic conditions improve significantly, it could work in favour of the incumbent. If hardship persists, the opposition will have a powerful campaign issue," the group noted.
Atiku and Obi's Projected Paths
For Atiku, the group sees his strength concentrated in the North-West and North-East, with Kaduna among the states forecast to fall in his favour. While his long political career and wide network remain advantages, PIG said he would need to make inroads in the South to be competitive nationally. "His ability to make significant inroads into the South will be critical to his prospects," the group said.
Obi's projected eight states, plus the FCT, largely mirror the political base he built during the 2023 election, when he drew strong support from younger voters and several southern states. Edo is among those listed in his column. PIG acknowledged that Obi's challenge lies in expanding that support geographically. "The question is whether that support can be expanded geographically and translated into sufficient state-by-state victories," it said.
Factors That Could Reshape the Projections
PIG identified political alliances, candidate choices, running mates and possible defections as factors that could reshape the current projections before election day. Regional identity, religion and ethnicity are also expected to play a role in political calculations, though the group said these would compete with concerns over security, food prices, petrol costs and unemployment.
"Our projection should be understood as a political snapshot. It reflects the balance of forces as they currently exist. It does not mean the election has already been won or lost," PIG said.
Recall that a public affairs analyst has outlined seven key areas Peter Obi must address to gain the trust of northern voters ahead of the 2027 elections. The analyst warned that Obi's 2023 gains in North-Central and urban areas were not enough, with major gaps remaining in North-West and North-East rural regions. From security and the Almajiri system to running mate selection and campaign language, the recommendations target specific northern concerns.
Meanwhile, Legit.ng also reported that a Lagos-based pastor, Kingsley Okonofua, on Sunday, August 30, said he had a vision about the outcome of Nigeria's 2027 presidential election. The prophecy also featured Atiku and Obi in separate circumstances. Pastor Okonofua claimed that Atiku disagreed with the 2027 election.
