The APC and ADC may have committed a strategic blunder in Kwara State ahead of the 2027 governorship election by selecting candidates from the same local government area, Baruten. This move threatens to fragment the Kwara North vote and potentially benefit the opposition PDP.
The Kwara North Agitation
Since 1999, political power in Kwara has rotated between Kwara Central and Kwara South, leaving Kwara North feeling excluded. The agitation for equity and inclusion became a recurring theme across Edu, Patigi, Moro, Kaiama, and Baruten local governments. When major parties began looking northward for candidates, many saw it as a historic breakthrough.
The Baruten Conundrum
However, both APC and ADC chose candidates from Baruten: APC settled for Rt. Hon. Yakubu Danladi, Speaker of the Kwara State House of Assembly, while ADC chose Hon. Zakari Mohammed, a former commissioner and House of Representatives member. This decision undermines the expected unity of Kwara North.
Internal Fragmentation
Instead of presenting a united northern front, the district now faces internal competition. Baruten, the largest local government by landmass, becomes the first battlefield. Every political structure, traditional network, and community group will be pulled in opposing directions, likely producing a split verdict.
Political scientist Abubakar Lasiele described this as an "own goal." Both candidates are grassroots politicians with genuine support networks, but neither can expect to sweep Baruten or Kwara North uncontested. Each weakens the other's strongest potential base.
Strategic Miscalculation
Conventional wisdom suggests parties should maximize geographical spread. A more strategic approach would have seen one party selecting a candidate from Baruten while another chose a contender from Moro, Edu, Patigi, or Kaiama. Instead, APC and ADC are fighting for the same political real estate.
The irony is that the district's quest for inclusion may now dilute its influence through internal rivalry. Candidates derive momentum from home bases; a candidate unable to establish dominance in his immediate constituency enters the wider contest from weakness.
The PDP Beneficiary
The principal beneficiary may be the PDP. While APC and ADC engage in a fierce contest within Baruten, the PDP quietly watches two rivals expend energy in the same territory. Every vote for Danladi is potentially denied to Mohammed, and vice versa. The PDP candidate faces no such dilemma and can build a broader coalition.
Moreover, the electoral centre of gravity remains Kwara Central, the state's largest voting bloc. If the PDP candidate enjoys popularity there, APC and ADC may have inadvertently left the most decisive area relatively open. A commanding PDP performance in Kwara Central, combined with respectable returns elsewhere, could secure victory.
Caution Remains
Politics is not mathematics alone. Incumbency, campaign financing, party structures, and unforeseen events will shape the outcome. Yet the decision by APC and ADC may be remembered as a strategic miscalculation, transforming a historic advantage into a political liability. As in football, an own goal counts the same as any other.
