Even without a governorship election in Ondo State next year, the growing controversy over the alleged consensus arrangement for National Assembly tickets is fueling political tensions that could unsettle the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC) and weaken President Bola Tinubu’s re-election structure in the state, ADEWALE MOMOH reports.
Political Tensions Rise in Ondo State
Ondo State is not scheduled to hold a governorship election until 2028, but the political atmosphere in the state has been heating up in recent months as aspirants jostling for National Assembly tickets scheme ahead of the primaries. The aspirants, in their numbers, have ignored Governor Lucky Aiyedatiwa’s call for consensus, including those within his camp, a development capable of tearing the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC) apart in the Sunshine State.
What was expected to be a straightforward nomination process for the nine House of Representatives seats and three Senatorial seats has instead degenerated into a full-blown crisis, with aggrieved aspirants vowing to defy the governor’s handpicked candidates and insisting on direct primaries.
Governor's Consensus Plan Faces Backlash
At the centre of the brewing storm is Aiyedatiwa’s attempt to leverage a consensus arrangement to handpick loyalists for the federal legislative seats, a move party members and chieftains warned could backfire and spell doom for the party ahead of the 2027 general elections. The governor, who assumed office following the demise of former Governor Oluwarotimi Akeredolu, was not involved in the emergence of the current federal lawmakers in 2023, with most of the incumbents being products of Akeredolu’s political structure.
With this development, Aiyedatiwa appears determined to build his own legislative ‘army’ despite uncertainty over his eligibility to contest the 2028 governorship election in the state. The governor has endorsed nine consensus candidates for the House of Representatives seats.
Endorsed Candidates List
For Okitipupa/Irele Federal Constituency, Olumuyiwa Daramola received Aiyedatiwa’s anointing; Ondo East/West: Abiola Makinde; Akure South/North: Omowunmi Olatunji-Ohwovoriole; Idanre/Ifedore: Tajudeen Adefisoye; Owo/Ose: Samuel Arowele; Akoko South West/South East: Ategbole Victor; Akoko North East/North West: Ife Ehindero (incumbent), Ilaje/Ese Odo: Leke Akingboye and Ileoluji/Oke Igbo: Mathew Oyerinde.
For the three senatorial seats, the governor has endorsed Isaac Kekemeke (National Vice Chairman of the APC and Chairman of NIPOST) for Ondo South. Ondo Central: Taiwo Fasoranti, the former Secretary to the State Government who resigned abruptly weeks ago, reportedly at Aiyedatiwa’s instance. Fasoranti is also the son of Reuben Fasoranti, while Ondo North had Abdul Tunji Mohammed endorsed by Aiyedatiwa.
Of the 12 federal lawmakers on the consensus list, only two are incumbents: Ife Ehindero (Akoko North East/North West Federal Constituency), who is a strong loyalist of the Minister of Interior, Olubunmi Tunji-Ojo. Abiola Makinde (Ondo West/Ondo East Federal Constituency) is also an incumbent federal lawmaker. The rest are new faces, predominantly loyalists of the governor.
Elders Warn Against Imposition
Elders within the party in the state had also cautioned Aiyedatiwa against imposing standard-bearers ahead of the 2027 general elections, warning that unpopular candidates might be unable to secure the party’s victory at the polls. The elders, under the aegis of the PBAT Mandate Elders Forum, disclosed that they were not consulted by the governor in the scheme of things regarding the emergence of candidates.
Raising concerns about a potential disconnect between state leadership and grassroots party structures, the forum’s state facilitator, Ademola Ijabiyi, stated that a smart and intelligent governor must consult widely and feel the pulse of stakeholders across constituencies.
Resistance from Aspirants
Meanwhile, the governor’s grand design to control the federal lawmakers from the state has hit a wall of resistance. In Ondo East/West Federal Constituency, four aspirants have rejected what they described as the “imposition” of Abiola Makinde as the consensus candidate. Jibayo Adeyeye, Ade Adeniyi, Bola Fisayo and Michael Ajilo, all of whom have purchased nomination forms, declared that they were never part of any consensus arrangement.
Adeyeye stated that: “We have all obtained our nomination and expression of interest forms. This signals our full preparedness for a direct primary as stipulated by law. Nobody consulted us about any consensus. We reject this imposition completely.”
Adeniyi, on his part, disclosed that “the party constitution is clear. We believe in internal democracy. Let the people decide through direct primaries. We will not step down for anyone simply because they have the governor’s backing.”
Similar scenes are playing out across the state. In the northern senatorial district, Gbenga Elegbeleye and Alex Ajipe are jostling to challenge incumbent Senator Jide Ipinsagba, who has also intensified moves to clinch the ticket. None of them appears ready to bow to Abdul Tunji Mohammed, the governor’s preferred candidate.
Adding another layer of complexity is Senator Jimoh Ibrahim, who was recently appointed as Nigeria’s Permanent Representative to the United Nations. Findings revealed that the politician has begun moves to ensure his preferred successor emerges for the Ondo South Senatorial District against the governor’s candidate.
Senatorial Race Heats Up
The race for the southern senatorial seat has attracted a crowded field of formidable aspirants, including Mayowa Akinfolarin (a two-term House of Representatives member), Dr Janet Adeyemi (a one-term House of Representatives member), Morayo Lebi, and Mathew Oyerinmade. Others include Boye Oyewunmi, Agboola Ajayi, Oladunni Odu (former Secretary to the State Government), Isaac Kekemeke (APC National Vice Chairman, South-West) and Jumoke Akindele.
Kekemeke, who is from Ese-Odo Local Council Area of the state, has been endorsed for the same seat by Aiyedatiwa. Party insiders say the endorsement has not discouraged other aspirants, many of whom command strong grassroots support.
“The idea that Isaac Kekemeke will simply walk into the nomination without a fight is laughable. Mayowa Akinfolarin has won elections several times. Others have their own structures. Agboola Ajayi was the deputy governor and a former House of Representatives member. These are not people who will step aside because someone in Akure says so,” Tobi Akinkunmi, an APC chieftain, stated.
For the Central Senatorial Zone, the political equation changed dramatically about a month ago when Taiwo Fasoranti suddenly resigned as Secretary to the State Government. Top aides to the governor revealed that the resignation was at Aiyedatiwa’s instance, as part of a plan to position Fasoranti to replace incumbent Senator Adeniyi Adegbomire.
Abiola Makinde, who currently represents Ondo West/Ondo East Federal Constituency, had been positioning himself for the senatorial ticket. Makinde served as Director-General of Aiyedatiwa’s campaign council for the 2024 governorship election and was widely seen as part of the governor’s political calculation.
Akinkunmi added that “Makinde believed he had done enough to earn the senatorial ticket. He worked tirelessly for Aiyedatiwa’s victory. Now he finds himself being asked to step aside for Fasoranti. That is a bitter pill to swallow.”
In Ondo North, the situation is equally tense. Incumbent Senator Jide Ipinsagba is fighting to retain his ticket but faces strong challenges from Gbenga Elegbeleye and Alex Ajipe. Governor Aiyedatiwa’s endorsement of Abdul Tunji Mohammed has only compounded the confusion.
An APC stalwart from Ondo North Senatorial District, Kola Adubiaro, stated that “none of the aspirants has shown any willingness to back down. They have all purchased forms, they have structures on the ground, and they are prepared for direct primaries. The governor’s consensus candidate will have to fight for it like everyone else.”
Fear of Violence and Disqualification
Meanwhile, with intense politicking already underway, fears are growing that if the situation is not properly managed, the primaries could assume the same violent dimension as the recent APC ward congresses in the state. During those congresses, factions clashed openly, with reports of thugs disrupting the exercise, leaving two persons dead and many others injured, particularly in the Central Senatorial District.
Adubiaro maintained that “we are sitting on a powder keg. These federal legislative seats mean everything to these aspirants. When people have that much at stake, and they feel the game is rigged against them, they will fight. We have seen it before in this state.”
However, what worries many aspirants and party members even more than the consensus arrangement is the possibility of mass disqualification. APC stakeholders point to a troubling pattern in recent primaries in Osun and Ekiti states, where popular aspirants such as Iyiola Omisore and Kayode Ojo were disqualified despite enjoying grassroots popularity.
A chieftain of the party in the state, Ayodele Emmanuel, said that “the same script is being written for Ondo. Disqualifying popular aspirants who are solid grassroots figures can lead to disaster for APC. No meeting has been held with the aspirants on the possibility of consensus.”
Another APC chieftain, Adegboyega Adefemi, raised the alarm that “sitting power holders are purportedly lobbying to place loyalists on primary election committees with the aim of allegedly disqualifying strong, grassroots-backed aspirants on flimsy or undisclosed grounds.”
Analysts Warn of Consequences
A political analyst and surveyor by profession, Olufemi Ogungbemi, who emphasised that Aiyedatiwa’s approach reflects a fundamental misunderstanding of party politics, stressed that “consensus is supposed to emerge from extensive consultation and agreement among stakeholders.”
He added: “What we are seeing in Ondo is not consensus; it is imposition. The governor is simply handpicking his loyalists and calling it a consensus. That is not how it works.
“When you force candidates on people, several things happen. First, the aggrieved aspirants often work against the party in the general election. Second, the imposed candidates lack grassroots legitimacy and struggle to mobilise voters, and this creates long-term resentment that weakens the party.”
“The governor needs to decide what is more important: having loyalists in the National Assembly or having a united party. Right now, he cannot have both.
“If he pushes this consensus arrangement, he will win the battle but lose the war. The party will be fractured, and the opposition will capitalise.”
A member of the party in Ose Local Council Area of the state, Tunde Ibidapo, hinted that if unpopular candidates are foisted on the people, there is likely to be protest votes or voter apathy at the polls.
He said, “The governor thinks he can simply tell us whom to vote for. But we have our own minds. We know who has been working for us, who we see at events, and who knows our names. If they bring someone we do not know and say, ‘This is your candidate,’ we will not come out to vote.
“These aspirants being pushed aside, some of them have been with us for years. They have paid our children’s school fees. They have helped when we were sick. Now, someone from nowhere will come and take the ticket because he is friends with the governor? No. We will resist that and vote against any imposed candidate. We will work for any alternative.
