The upcoming 2027 elections in Nigeria are expected to be fiercely contested, driven by the desperation of political parties to outmaneuver one another. The ruling All Progressives Congress (APC) will strive to secure a second term for President Bola Ahmed Tinubu, while opposition parties such as the African Democratic Congress (ADC) and the Nigeria Democratic Congress (NDC) will deploy all resources to unseat the current administration. Although other political parties will also compete vigorously, the main battle will be among the APC, NDC, and ADC.
The stakes are high, fueled by a lust for power to control political authority and economic resources. However, these resources are often poorly allocated and thoughtlessly used to protect pride, fund vanity, and maintain empires, rather than being judiciously applied to improve citizens' living conditions.
Historical Context of Electoral Violence
Since 1999, nearly all presidential candidates except former President Goodluck Jonathan have contributed to political tension through their declarations. For instance, ahead of the April 2007 presidential election, then-President Olusegun Obasanjo described it as a "do-or-die affair." This statement encouraged supporters of the Peoples' Democratic Party (PDP) to pursue victory at all costs, disregarding potential consequences, leading to violence and fatalities across the country.
Similarly, during the 2011 elections, after losing to Goodluck Jonathan, former President Muhammadu Buhari's post-election remarks provoked violence, particularly in the northwest. According to Human Rights Watch, over 800 people were killed and more than 65,000 displaced in the 2011 general elections due to widespread protests and riots by Buhari's supporters in states like Adamawa, Bauchi, Borno, Gombe, Jigawa, Kaduna, Kano, Katsina, Niger, Sokoto, Yobe, and Zamfara. The violence was exacerbated by sectarian undertones.
Buhari further threatened that if the 2015 elections were rigged like those in 2011, "the dog and the baboon would all be soaked in blood," implying inevitable violence and death. Fortunately, Jonathan conceded defeat, preventing Buhari's threat from materializing. Jonathan's action not only eased tension but also averted widespread bloodshed, guided by his belief that no ambition is worth the blood of any Nigerian.
Incumbent President's Rhetoric
President Tinubu has also made remarks that encourage violence. While addressing party members in London in 2023, he stated that political power must be secured by "fighting for it, grabbing it, snatching it and running with it." This statement has been linked to incidents like the snatching of a ballot box in Lekki, Lagos, during the 2023 general elections, where thugs seized ballot papers after voters had queued for hours.
Additionally, a recent comment by a political party official advised Nigerians to defend their votes with "bottles and jerry cans of kerosene," an overt call to violence and an invitation to anarchy. Such rhetoric sets the stage for a worst-case scenario in the 2027 elections.
Systemic Failure and Citizen Safety
Nigeria has a notorious reputation for election manipulation and violence, attracting global attention. As elections approach, scepticism, uncertainty, fear, and apprehension prevail. Despite government assurances to protect lives, past experiences show that security agencies often fail to handle high-level violence, as seen in the 2011 elections where over 800 people died.
Politicians appear indifferent to deaths, treating them as collateral damage in the pursuit of electoral victory. Their focus on the value of votes is evident during post-election litigations, where legal redress seeks to overturn results rather than justice for the deceased.
Citizens are therefore advised to devise personal safety nets to protect themselves in the event of threats to life, even if it means avoiding polling booths. Many who died in previous elections have been forgotten, and the country moved on without them. To avoid being counted among the dead in 2027, individuals must prioritize their own safety.
