Military authorities in Guinea-Bissau have presented a new justification for their seizure of power, stating the nation faced a severe threat of descending into an ethnic civil war following last month's elections. This marks a shift from their initial claim that drug traffickers were plotting to destabilize the country.
From Drug Lords to Ethnic Strife: The Junta's Evolving Narrative
On Thursday, December 4, 2025, the high military command issued a resolution seen by AFP, proclaiming the establishment of a National Transitional Council. The document argued that the political situation after the November 23 vote was so "grave" it could degenerate into a conflict with ethnic undertones. "The Armed Forces were once again compelled to intervene, resulting in another change to the constitutional order through force," the resolution stated.
This new rationale replaces the junta's original allegation made after toppling President Umaro Sissoco Embalo on November 26. They had first claimed that powerful cocaine barons, exploiting the nation's status as a trafficking hotspot, were conspiring to create chaos.
A Coup Blessed by the President?
Opposition figures and regional analysts have suggested a more complex motive behind the power grab. They posit that the coup may have been executed with the blessing of the ousted president to halt an electoral process he was at risk of losing. Supporting this theory is the junta's appointment of General Horta N'Tam, a known close ally of Embalo, to lead a transitional administration slated to last one year.
Fernando Dias, Embalo's main rival in the presidential ballot, directly accused the president of masterminding the takeover. Dias told AFP that Embalo orchestrated the coup because he faced the real possibility of losing the election.
Election Results Destroyed, History Repeats
Adding to the turmoil, the country's electoral commission revealed on Tuesday that it could not publish the official results of the November elections. Its offices were raided on the day of the coup by masked men who destroyed all voting records. This act has cast a long shadow over the democratic process and fueled accusations of a deliberate cover-up.
This latest upheaval continues a long and troubled pattern for Guinea-Bissau. Since gaining independence from Portugal in 1974, the small West African nation has experienced four successful coups and numerous other attempted takeovers, highlighting its persistent political fragility.
