Nigeria's two main opposition parties, the African Democratic Congress (ADC) and the Nigeria Democratic Congress (NDC), are facing multiple internal crises, raising doubts about their ability to challenge or defeat the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC) in next year's general elections. Although Nigeria currently has 21 registered parties, the ADC and NDC are expected to pose formidable challenges due to their presidential candidates: Atiku Abubakar of the ADC and Peter Obi of the NDC.
Background of Opposition Parties
Atiku Abubakar came second in the last presidential election, while Peter Obi placed third. Together, they garnered more votes than the eventual winner, President Bola Tinubu, in 2023. Though both men were in different parties during the 2023 contest, they are believed to still wield significant influence over millions of followers. To effectively challenge and defeat the APC, each party needs to be formidable, but self-inflicted problems, especially regarding party primaries, pose major challenges.
ADC's Many Disputes
The ADC entered 2026 with significant coalition momentum but fractured when key figures, including Peter Obi and Rabiu Kwankwaso, exited for the NDC. The platform, anchored by veterans such as Atiku Abubakar, David Mark, and Rauf Aregbesola, has since faced persistent factional challenges. Rival claims over the party's leadership triggered court interventions. INEC temporarily removed Messrs Mark and Aregbesola from its portal following Appeal Court orders earlier in 2026, but the Supreme Court's intervention subsequently led to their reinstatement.
On Monday, a Federal High Court judge ordered INEC to deregister the ADC and three other parties over claims that they no longer meet registration requirements. The party is expected to appeal and may get reprieve at higher courts. However, it still faces several court cases over its registration, leadership, and conventions. The crises worsened after its presidential primary. Although Atiku emerged as the party's candidate, Rotimi Amaechi and another aspirant publicly rejected the outcome, alleging widespread disenfranchisement and irregularities. The ADC later named Amaechi as its vice presidential candidate, a move that may placate the former Rivers governor.
Apart from the presidential primary dispute, the ADC also faces crises from governorship primaries in several states, including Rivers, Oyo, Akwa Ibom, Kaduna, Kano, Benue, and Adamawa. In Rivers, Amaechi's home state, rival factions laid claim to competing candidates, while appeals remain pending in other states. Some aggrieved aspirants have threatened litigation or defection. The disputes over governorship and legislative primaries are so intense that about three weeks after the primaries, the party is yet to release the official list of its candidates. However, the party's National Publicity Secretary, Bolaji Abdullahi, said efforts were being made to resolve outstanding appeals before candidate lists are finalised.
NDC: Rapid Growth Creates New Challenges
Registered in February 2026, the NDC quickly absorbed high-profile defectors. Peter Obi emerged unopposed as the presidential candidate, with Rabiu Kwankwaso as running mate. Primaries concluded around late May 2026, but the party has faced multiple complaints of irregularities in many states. There have also been criticisms from sections of the 'Obidient Movement', a group supporting Obi, over appointments and the treatment of prominent supporters such as activist Aisha Yesufu. The crisis between NDC leadership and the Obidient Movement worsened when the party's founder and national leader, Seriake Dickson, publicly criticised the group, saying the party was doing Obi a favour and should be commended and respected.
Dickson, a former Bayelsa governor, met with Obi on June 12, after which he announced that they had 'amicably resolved all the issues' and urged members to 'stop the bickering and name-calling' and focus on 2027. Dickson has blamed the Electoral Act's mandatory direct primaries for many irregularities while defending the platform as more than a vehicle for big names.
Core Challenges and Fresh Risks
One of the NDC's biggest challenges is converting the popularity of the Obidient and Kwankwasiyya movements into functional structures across Nigeria's 774 local government areas. This task has been complicated by efforts to merge different political cultures and by disputes over power-sharing arrangements, particularly in Kano, where disagreements over a proposed 60-40 formula generated tensions among stakeholders. Another potential flashpoint has emerged in Abia State, where documents reviewed by journalists and accounts from party insiders indicate that the chair of the Primary Election Committee submitted a candidate list directly to INEC on May 30 without routing it through the national leadership. Critics argue that such actions could trigger procedural disputes if conflicting nominations emerge.
The platform is also grappling with reconciliation efforts and demands for loyalty designed to discourage defections after the primaries. Although NDC leaders project confidence and insist the party is ready for the next phase, these developments highlight lingering gaps and the challenges of building a nationwide political organisation at speed. An indication that NDC crises from primaries remain unresolved was a statement by the party's spokesperson, Osa Director, who said the party has not 'released any official results of its primary elections in any state' and asked Nigerians to 'disregard any such list in circulation.'
When Automation Meets Political Chaos
As of now, neither the ADC nor the NDC has published its full candidate lists, although the parties still have time before submitting lists to INEC. INEC's revised timetable is strict: access codes for the nomination portal become available from June 27; the deadline for submission of presidential and National Assembly candidates is July 11 at midnight, with later windows for governorship and state assembly races. Only leadership listed in INEC's official registry, backed by party records and court judgements, receives the official access credentials. Although the two opposition parties are expected to meet INEC deadlines, they will most likely do so without resolving disputes arising from their primaries, meaning each could go into elections with a divided house.
Leadership and Access Risks
Past derecognitions, such as those experienced by factions within the ADC, and allegations of unauthorised submissions illustrate how leadership disputes can complicate access to the INEC nomination portal. Where rival factions claim legitimacy, any upload could become the subject of immediate legal challenge.
Parallel and Disputed Lists
State-level grievances and unresolved appeals in both parties present another risk. If competing factions produce rival candidate lists or challenge primary outcomes, courts could be asked to determine the validity of nominations, potentially affecting candidates long after submissions have been made.
The Grassroots Challenge
Beyond portal access, both parties still face the task of building effective polling-unit structures nationwide. Weak agent deployment and organisational gaps in communities could undermine electoral competitiveness, regardless of whether candidate lists are successfully uploaded. This digitised process has eliminated old manual negotiations; internal discipline and compliance are now non-negotiable. Both parties were notably absent from INEC's cleared candidate list for the coming June 20 bye-elections, underscoring the real-world consequences of unresolved internal issues.
INEC's Hands-Off Approach
INEC maintains it does not intervene in internal party affairs. It acts on official records, party constitutions, and valid court judgements. There are no discretionary extensions; deadlines are statutory. The commission has excluded parties from recent bye-elections over unresolved leadership issues and will process submissions from recognised officers, leaving subsequent disputes to the courts. Monitoring of key party activities remains a prerequisite for full validity under the Electoral Act.
Resolution Prospects and Broader 2027 Implications
Despite the challenges facing both parties, there remains a pathway to resolution before INEC's nomination deadline. The NDC has already begun reconciliation efforts through high-level engagements between Obi and Dickson, while the ADC has benefited from recent leadership reinstatements following court interventions. However, both parties must still resolve outstanding appeals, manage aggrieved aspirants, and strengthen internal cohesion before candidate lists are finalised.
With the nomination portal set to open, both platforms retain a narrow but realistic opportunity to meet the July 11 deadline for presidential and National Assembly candidates. Yet the pressure of time means that delays in resolving disputes could quickly escalate into legal and administrative complications. Beyond the immediate nomination process, the crises highlight broader challenges confronting Nigeria's opposition. A fragmented political landscape could split anti-APC votes, while the growing judicialisation of politics means courts, rather than voters or party members, increasingly determine the fate of candidates and electoral contests.
Most fundamentally, both parties continue to exhibit signs of institutional fragility, remaining heavily dependent on a small circle of influential political figures, including Atiku, Amaechi, Obi, and Kwankwaso. The deeper question is whether either platform has developed structures strong enough to survive beyond the influence of its leading personalities. Constitutional lawyer and political analyst Chima Nnaji warned that unresolved disputes could create legal complications for candidates, noting that courts often intervene when parties fail to comply with either the Electoral Act or their own constitutions. Similar disputes in Zamfara and Rivers previously led to major electoral victories being overturned, demonstrating how internal party crises can carry consequences far beyond the courtroom.
For both the ADC and NDC, the coming weeks may reveal whether Nigeria's opposition has developed the institutional capacity required to compete for power in 2027, or whether administrative weaknesses will undermine those ambitions before campaigns fully begin.
