Aviation Minister Outlines Kwankwaso's Political Crossroads
The Minister of Aviation and Aerospace Development, Festus Keyamo (SAN), has presented a detailed analysis of five potential political outcomes for Senator Rabiu Musa Kwankwaso following his public fallout with Kano State Governor, Abba Kabir Yusuf. In a comprehensive assessment shared via his official social media platform, Keyamo cautioned that the former Kano governor risks significant political diminishment unless he strategically realigns with a major national political party ahead of the 2027 general elections.
Presidential Ambition Faces Structural Hurdles
Keyamo identified Kwankwaso's presidential aspiration as facing substantial structural barriers within Nigeria's political landscape. The minister emphasized that both the All Progressives Congress (APC) and Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) are likely to zone their presidential tickets to southern regions in 2027, effectively blocking Kwankwaso's path through major party platforms. He described the New Nigeria People's Party (NNPP) as having evolved into what he termed a "one-state party" whose influence in Kano is visibly weakening amid recent defections, including that of Governor Yusuf.
"A leader is only as strong as his devoted lieutenants," Keyamo remarked, highlighting the significance of Kwankwaso's diminishing support base within his traditional stronghold.
Strategic Dilemmas and Alliance Limitations
The minister outlined several strategic dilemmas confronting Kwankwaso's political future. According to Keyamo's analysis, supporting a northern presidential candidate in 2027 would effectively terminate Kwankwaso's own presidential ambitions, potentially forcing him to wait until 2043 for another opportunity—by which time he would be 86 years old. This scenario, Keyamo noted, completely eliminates any possibility of cooperation between Kwankwaso and former Vice President Atiku Abubakar in the upcoming election cycle.
Keyamo further argued that 2031 represents Kwankwaso's most realistic pathway to presidential contention, but warned that his political relevance in that timeframe would be heavily dependent on maintaining influence during the 2027 elections. If Kwankwaso's grip on Kano politics weakens in 2027, his national clout and bargaining power would be substantially diluted by 2031, the minister cautioned.
Limited Alliance Options with Significant Trade-offs
The aviation minister detailed Kwankwaso's limited alliance possibilities, each presenting substantial challenges. A potential return to the PDP could allow Kwankwaso to reclaim political influence in Kano and parts of the North-West region, but would require him to shelve his 2027 presidential ambition due to the party's anticipated zoning arrangements.
Regarding the APC, Keyamo stated that while the party would welcome Kwankwaso, it cannot restructure its entire Kano organization to accommodate him, particularly following Governor Yusuf's departure from Kwankwaso's political circle. The Labour Party option was dismissed as impractical, with Keyamo asserting that Kwankwaso would neither accept nor receive sufficient backing to run as vice-presidential candidate alongside Peter Obi.
Risk of Political Marginalization
Keyamo's final warning centered on the risk of Kwankwaso becoming what he termed a "local political champion" confined to his NNPP platform. The minister emphasized that Kwankwaso stands at a decisive political crossroads where his next moves could either revive his presidential aspirations or permanently conclude his national political career.
"Without a strategic handshake with another major party, he will remain a local champion with his NNPP, and even that may soon vanish with the present predicament of the party in Kano," Keyamo stated, highlighting the urgency of Kwankwaso's political decisions.
The minister's analysis comes amid heightened political tensions in Kano, where Kwankwaso recently described January 23, 2026—the date of Governor Yusuf's reported defection from NNPP to APC—as "World Betrayer Day." This public statement has drawn criticism from political figures including Hon. Aliyu Sani Madaki, Deputy House Minority Leader representing Dala Federal Constituency, who accused Kwankwaso of hypocrisy in his reaction to the political developments.
