The security landscape in Nigeria's North Central region faces a new and formidable threat. The Jama'at Nusrat al-Islam wal-Muslimin (JNIM), a powerful al-Qaeda-linked coalition, has officially announced its violent entry into Nigeria by claiming responsibility for an attack that killed a soldier in Kwara State.
A Symbolic and Strategic Crossing
On October 31, 2025, jihadist-aligned online channels circulated a propaganda message from JNIM. The group, which has been a dominant force in the Sahel for over a decade, claimed an operation on Nigerian soil for the first time. This claim was later substantiated by a video released by the group and reported by Humangle Media, showing the aftermath of an incident in a border community in Kwara State where a soldier lost his life.
This attack is not an isolated event but appears to be part of a calculated expansion. Earlier, in July 2025, JNIM released a video asserting it had established a presence in Niger State, another North Central region where the al-Qaeda-linked faction Ansaru operates. Analysts warn that these moves signal a dangerous new phase of jihadist encroachment into Nigeria's heartland, a region already grappling with multiple security challenges.
JNIM's Proven Expansion Model
For years, JNIM has been a resilient and expanding jihadist force across Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger, displacing millions and creating a severe humanitarian crisis. Its strategy for growth has followed a recognizable pattern. The group often begins with small, probing attacks to test military responses, identify local sympathizers, and expose security weaknesses.
Observers note that the Kwara State attack bears the hallmarks of such a reconnaissance operation. There is no current evidence of permanent JNIM bases within Nigeria, but the incident serves as a strategic signal. The group's history shows that these initial probes can evolve into deep entrenchment, complete with parallel governance, taxation, and judicial systems. A precedent was set on May 2, 2017, when JNIM's Katiba Macina wing conducted its first attack in western Mali near Dogofry, which later led to sustained operations in the area.
Local Networks as Conduits for Expansion
JNIM's success in the Sahel has not relied solely on moving fighters across borders. Instead, it has thrived by embedding itself within pre-existing local conflicts and forging alliances with armed groups. A similar model may now be unfolding in northwestern and north-central Nigeria.
Over the past five years, groups like Lakurawa—designated a terrorist organization by Nigerian authorities in September 2024—have risen in states like Sokoto, Kebbi, Zamfara, and Katsina. Security experts, including Taiwo Hassan Adebayo, a Lake Chad Basin researcher at the Institute for Security Studies, warn that such networks provide fertile ground for transnational jihadist movements like JNIM.
These alliances are mutually beneficial. JNIM offers training, weapons, and access to international funding, while local groups provide crucial intelligence, mobility, and community-level legitimacy. This convergence blurs the lines between crime and insurgency, making the resulting violence more complex and difficult to resolve.
The confirmed attack in Kwara State marks a pivotal moment. It represents JNIM's symbolic crossing into Nigeria's already fractured security environment, raising urgent questions about the country's preparedness to counter this new front of expansion from the Sahel.
