Jihadist Rivalry Escalates into Full-Scale Territorial Warfare
The longstanding rivalry between the Islamic State West Africa Province (ISWAP) and Boko Haram has erupted into full-scale territorial warfare along riverine settlement routes in Abadam and Kukawa Local Government Areas of Borno State. According to Counter Insurgency Expert and Security Analyst in the Lake Chad Region, Zagazola Makama, the conflict took a dramatic turn for the worse when Boko Haram launched a fierce coordinated assault against its rival faction.
Boko Haram's Multi-Axis Assault Forces ISWAP Retreat
The attack proved devastating for ISWAP fighters, who were forced to abandon their river camps and scramble for safety. Reliable sources confirm that Boko Haram, also known as JAS, deployed numerous motorised watercraft in a multi-axis assault that overwhelmed ISWAP clusters. The offensive pushed surviving fighters off the island perimeter into mainland hideouts around Ali Jillimari, Metele, Kangarwa, and Gudumbali in northern Borno.
This development marks a significant shift in the balance of power, as ISWAP had dominated these islands since 2021 following the death of Boko Haram leader Abubakar Shekau. The receding water levels this season have opened new land routes and exposed old fishing settlements, creating opportunities for territorial advances.
Strategic Implications and Civilian Impact
At the heart of this escalation lies a battle for dominance rather than ideological differences. Boko Haram has explicitly vowed to eliminate ISWAP presence in the Lake Chad islands and seize control of ISWAP's lucrative supply corridors connecting Niger, Chad, and Cameroon.
Security analysts report that JAS plans to push further south toward ISWAP headquarters within Marte and Ngala Local Government Areas. This strategic move, if successful, would reverse ISWAP's dominance for the first time since 2021.
Zagazola's analysis indicates that the clashes represent a transition from sporadic skirmishes to a full territorial campaign. Communities in Kukawa and Abadam, particularly fishermen, boat operators, and seasonal farmers, will bear the immediate consequences of this intensified conflict.
The emerging trend suggests both factions will now launch retaliatory raids on each other's strongholds, attacking supply lines including river transport. Security experts anticipate more ambushes, roadside bombs, and abductions along access routes linking Metele, Kangarwa, and the Maiduguri–Damasak MSR.
The Lake Chad Basin has always held strategic value as an area where borders blur and conventional armies struggle to manoeuvre. This new insurgent rivalry marks a critical turning point where, for the first time in years, Boko Haram and ISWAP are not just fighting the state but battling each other for control of the shadows.
Caught between gunboats, competing ideologies, and hunger are the civilians of the Lake Chad islands, whose lives continue to be shaped by a war they did not choose and cannot escape.
