In an unprecedented turn of events, Bournemouth and Liverpool might end the Premier League season with a playoff game to determine the fifth and final Champions League qualification spot. This possibility emerged after Bournemouth secured a 1-1 draw against Manchester City at the Vitality Stadium on Tuesday night.
How the playoff scenario unfolds
The draw against City confirmed Arsenal as champions for the first time since 2004, but it also tightened the race for fifth place. Bournemouth now trail Liverpool by three points with one match remaining. To force a playoff, Bournemouth must beat Nottingham Forest at the City Ground on Sunday, while Liverpool must lose at home to Brentford.
Given recent form, this is not entirely far-fetched. Liverpool have managed only one point from their last three games, while Bournemouth have won three and drawn two of their last five. The Cherries were also denied a win against City only by a 95th-minute equalizer from Erling Haaland.
Goal difference and tiebreakers
Liverpool hold a significant advantage in goal difference (+10 compared to Bournemouth's +4) and have scored five more goals. Typically, a seven-goal swing would be needed to deny them fifth place. For instance, a 4-0 win for Bournemouth and a 2-0 defeat for Liverpool would still keep Liverpool ahead.
However, as noted by Opta's Football Editor Michael Reid on social media, if Bournemouth win 5-0 and Liverpool lose 1-0, the teams would be level on points, goal difference, and goals scored. The next tiebreaker is head-to-head points, but each team won their home game, leaving them equal. Away goals in those matches also fail to separate them, with Liverpool winning 4-2 at home and Bournemouth winning 3-2 at home. This would necessitate a playoff.
Remarkably, Bournemouth beat Forest 5-0 in the corresponding fixture last season, making the exact scoreline required a realistic possibility.
Liverpool's struggles and managerial pressure
The mere discussion of such a scenario highlights Liverpool's underachievement this season. They have won only 17 of 37 league games, lost 12, and failed to progress beyond the quarterfinals in domestic cups or the Champions League.
Despite reports that FSG are not considering replacing manager Arne Slot, with Xabi Alonso allowed to join Chelsea, recent results have fueled speculation. A 4-2 defeat to Aston Villa and public criticism from Mohamed Salah on social media have led to claims that Liverpool might change managers this summer, with four alternatives reportedly under consideration.
If Bournemouth somehow pull off a miracle and claim fifth place, the pressure on Slot would only intensify.
