The Premier League title race took several dramatic turns on matchday 11, leading to a major new prediction from Opta's renowned supercomputer about who will lift the trophy in May 2026.
Matchday 11 Shakes Up Title Race
The final set of games before the international break produced significant surprises that have altered the championship landscape. Arsenal conceded a late equalizer against Sunderland in a 2-2 draw, dropping points for the first time since September. Meanwhile, Manchester City celebrated manager Pep Guardiola's 1,000th career game with a dominant 3-0 victory over struggling champions Liverpool.
Chelsea continued their impressive form with a 3-0 win against Wolverhampton Wanderers, moving them into the top four. The loss to Manchester City leaves Liverpool manager Arne Slot under increasing pressure, with reports suggesting the club hierarchy might consider replacing the Dutchman.
Supercomputer's Title Prediction
Despite their recent stumble, Arsenal remains the overwhelming favorite to win their first Premier League title in 22 years, according to Opta's supercomputer. The prediction gives Mikel Arteta's side a 63.60% chance of claiming the championship, projecting them as the only team likely to surpass 80 points this season.
Manchester City's crucial victory over Liverpool has boosted their title hopes significantly, now holding a 22.94% chance of winning the league. Liverpool, despite sitting in eighth position after their fifth league defeat, still maintains a seven percent chance of retaining their title.
Chelsea, fresh from their Club World Cup triumph, has been given a 2.75% probability of winning their first domestic title since the 2016/17 season. Newcastle United rounds out the contenders with a minimal 0.12% chance.
Relegation Battle and European Places
The supercomputer also forecast the bottom of the table, predicting that Wolverhampton Wanderers, Leeds United, and Burnley will face relegation. West Ham United, under manager Nuno Espírito Santo, have given themselves a fighting chance after securing two consecutive wins, now level on points with Burnley.
In the race for European qualification, Manchester United's improved form has positioned them for a potential seventh-place finish and UEFA Conference League football next season. Aston Villa's comprehensive 4-0 victory over AFC Bournemouth propelled them into the top six.
The Premier League resumes after the international break with Arsenal holding a four-point advantage at the summit, but Manchester City has sent a clear message that they intend to challenge all the way to the finish line.
