Opta's supercomputer has released its prediction for the 2025/26 UEFA Champions League final, which will see Paris Saint-Germain face Arsenal at the Puskas Arena in Budapest on May 30, 2026.
PSG enters the match as defending champions, having won the title last season, while Arsenal seeks their first ever Champions League trophy. According to L'Equipe, this final marks the first time two capital city clubs have met in the final since the competition was rebranded as the Champions League in 1992.
PSG's Road to the Final
Paris Saint-Germain's group stage campaign was challenging, as they finished outside the top eight for the second consecutive season. The Parisians began with three straight wins against Atalanta, Barcelona, and Bayer Leverkusen, scoring 14 goals and conceding only three. However, a home loss to Bayern Munich, a win over Tottenham Hotspur, a draw with Athletic Bilbao, a loss to Sporting CP, and a draw with Newcastle United followed, leaving them 11th on the 36-team table.
In the playoffs, PSG defeated fellow French side AS Monaco 5-4 on aggregate before thrashing Chelsea 8-2 in the round of 16. Luis Enrique's men then beat Liverpool 4-0 in the quarter-finals and edged past Bayern Munich 6-5 in the semi-finals to reach the final.
Arsenal's Path to the Final
Arsenal enjoyed a flawless group stage, winning all eight matches, including victories over Atletico Madrid, Bayern Munich, and Inter Milan, while scoring 23 goals. Finishing top of the table allowed them to skip the playoffs. In the round of 16, they eliminated Bayer Leverkusen 3-1 on aggregate.
The Gunners faced Sporting Lisbon in the quarter-finals, with Kai Havertz scoring a late winner in Portugal before a 0-0 draw at the Emirates secured progression. In the semi-finals, Arsenal drew 1-1 away at Atletico Madrid before Bukayo Saka's goal in London sealed a 2-1 aggregate victory and a place in the final for the first time since 2006.
Supercomputer Prediction
According to The Analyst, Opta's supercomputer ran 10,000 simulations of the final. The results give PSG a 56% chance of retaining their title, while Arsenal have a 44% chance of winning their first. Within 90 minutes, PSG have a 43.5% probability of victory, Arsenal 29.7%, and the remaining 26.8% of scenarios require extra time or penalties.
Wenger's View
Former Arsenal manager Arsene Wenger, who spent 22 years at the club, has backed his former team to win the final, something he failed to achieve in 2006 against Barcelona. Wenger's comments add an emotional layer to the match, as the Gunners seek to end their long wait for European glory.
