The Alliance for a Green Revolution in Africa (AGRA) has published its October 2025 Food Security Monitor, providing a detailed analysis of agribusiness and food prices across the continent. The report reveals a complex picture of fluctuating staple food costs, with prices for commodities like maize and rice decreasing in some nations while increasing in others.
East and Southern Africa: A Tale of Contrasting Markets
In East Africa, the report indicates mixed price movements for staple foods. Maize prices generally declined due to improved harvests. South Sudan witnessed a significant 19% drop in maize prices, while Tanzania saw a 16.7% decrease. However, Rwanda was an exception, experiencing no such relief.
Rice prices were largely stable in the sub-region. South Sudan saw a slight 5% reduction, attributed to increased domestic and humanitarian supply. Kenya maintained the highest rice price in East Africa because of its continued reliance on imports.
Conversely, fertilizer prices surged, posing a significant threat to future food production. Rwanda saw a 19.95% monthly increase for NPK fertilizer, and Kenya experienced a 14.26% rise for CAN, driven by global supply chain issues and currency depreciation.
In Southern Africa, Malawi's maize prices fell by 6.4% month-on-month, offering short-term relief linked to government plans to import 200,000 metric tons from Zambia. Despite this decline, prices remain high compared to earlier in the year. Neighbouring Zambia, however, saw its maize price increase by 9% to USD 276 per metric ton, fueled by demand from Malawi and local currency appreciation. In Mozambique, rice prices eased by 4.7% due to improved availability.
West Africa: Harvest Inflows Ease Some Prices
The West African market showed a general trend of price softening, driven by seasonal harvests. In Nigeria, the price of maize dropped by 5.3%. Togo saw a more substantial decline of 8.3% for the same commodity, a result of import duty waivers and trader grain releases.
However, the story was different for rice. Coastal nations like Nigeria, Togo, and Ghana saw rice prices increase by 3% to 12%, reflecting ongoing currency pressures and long-term supply constraints tied to import dependency. Inland countries such as Niger, Mali, and Burkina Faso experienced marginal declines in rice costs.
Prices for other staples also fell. Millet prices dropped between 9% and 12% in Burkina Faso, Mali, and Nigeria. Sorghum saw a dramatic 16.5% decrease in Nigeria and a 10.4% fall in Burkina Faso, highlighting regional supply imbalances.
Trade Developments and Regional Security Implications
The AGRA report also highlighted significant trade developments. Ethiopia has commenced its first shipments under the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA), dispatching meat, fruits, and agricultural products to Somalia, Kenya, and South Africa.
In a major policy shift, Zimbabwe has lifted its ban on importing maize, grains, and oilseeds, imposed in August 2025. The new policy opens imports while introducing phased local sourcing requirements to protect domestic farmers.
Furthermore, Ghana and Niger have formalized a new trade agreement to streamline their shared transit corridor. This initiative aims to harmonize customs procedures and reduce excessive checkpoints, thereby lowering trading costs between the coast and the landlocked interior. The report noted that no new trade deals involving Nigeria for food import or export were recorded during the period.
These mixed price movements and trade adjustments underscore the fragile state of food security in Africa. While harvests and some government interventions provide temporary relief, underlying issues like currency volatility, import dependency, and high input costs continue to pose significant risks to affordability and stable food supply for millions.
