The global wine industry is poised for a modest recovery in 2025 following a severe downturn that led to the worst annual output in over six decades last year, according to a new report from the International Organisation of Vine and Wine (OIV).
A Slight Rebound Amidst Persistent Challenges
In a statement released on Wednesday, the OIV projected that worldwide wine production will reach approximately 232 million hectolitres in 2025. This figure represents a three percent increase over the disastrous 2024 levels but remains stubbornly below recent historical averages.
The OIV, which gathers data from 29 countries accounting for 85 percent of global production, attributes this period of reduced supply to two main factors: climatic challenges and evolving consumer habits. The organization confirmed that the industry is experiencing a "period of persistently reduced global supply."
Regional Variations Paint a Complex Picture
The European Union, which produces 60 percent of the world's wine, continues to face significant high climatic variability. The report highlights stark contrasts within the region: France and Spain recorded very low harvests, while Italy is recovering to near-normal levels. Some central and southeast European nations have even managed to improve on their recent averages.
Across the Atlantic, the United States saw only a partial rebound from its 2024 production levels. In the Southern Hemisphere, a moderate recovery was driven by improvements in South Africa, Australia, New Zealand, and Brazil. However, this positive trend was partially offset by a significant decline in Chile, where production suffered from heatwaves, irregular rainfall, and severe water shortages.
Balancing Supply with Softer Demand
While the climatic impacts have created serious problems for individual producers and regions, the OIV Director General, John Barker, suggests the overall picture contains a silver lining. He noted that from a global perspective, the reduced supply is creating more balance between global supply and demand, which is supporting stronger export pricing.
This adjustment comes at a time when global wine consumption has been steadily declining, reaching its lowest level in more than sixty years in 2024. The industry's adaptation to this softer demand, while challenging for many, is contributing to a more stable market foundation from a supply and demand perspective.
