International Travel Squeeze: Airfares Spike 100% as Airlines Cancel Flights Amid Conflict
The ongoing war between the U.S.-Israel alliance and Iran is severely crippling international air transport, with average airfares recording a dramatic surge of over 100 per cent across multiple routes. This demand-pull inflation, primarily affecting European and American carriers, follows the abrupt and indefinite suspension of numerous inbound and outbound flights in the Middle East. While safety remains the paramount concern for airlines, this development has disrupted the global economy and millions of travel plans, including the upcoming summer travel season.
Flight Suspensions and Operational Shutdowns
As of recent reports, all major Middle Eastern carriers—including Emirates, Etihad Airways, and Middle Eastern Airlines (MEA)—have suspended flights indefinitely. Key aviation hubs such as Dubai (DXB), Abu Dhabi (AUH), Doha (DOH), and Tel Aviv (TLV) are facing shutdowns and restricted operations, with carriers operating limited schedules and cancelling thousands of flights. Passengers who had previously booked flights to the Middle East are either cancelling or postponing their trips, while travel agencies in Nigeria are experiencing daily cancellations.
In Nigeria, international travel has significantly shrunk over the past two weeks. Records from travel agents indicate that approximately 40 to 45 per cent of travellers in and out of the country typically pass through the Middle East to reach final destinations in Europe and America. Four Middle East airlines operate on Nigerian routes: Emirates, Etihad, Qatar Airways, and Middle East Airlines (MEA), collectively offering 47 weekly frequencies and 17,634 combined seats weekly to Murtala Muhammed International Airport (MMIA) in Lagos and Nnamdi Azikiwe International Airport (NAIA) in Abuja.
Impact on Airfare and Travel Logistics
Travel experts have confirmed that airfares have surged by over 100 per cent on many routes in the last two weeks, despite high booking cancellations. Searches on airline booking portals verify this spike. For instance, a British Airways economy class ticket for March 20, 2026, with a return on April 1, 2026, now costs $2,656 (about N3.6 million), compared to $1,050 (N1.4 million) before the conflict. Similarly, a Lufthansa return ticket to Frankfurt for the same dates is priced at $1,100 to $1,150 (about N1.504 to N1.572 million), up from $583 to $606 in February.
Bankole Bernard, Group Managing Director of Finchglow Holdings Limited, highlighted that the war has regrettably impacted global travel. He noted that most flights departing Nigeria route through the Middle East or Far East to China, and the closure of Middle Eastern airspace has collapsed economies reliant on tourism, such as the UAE, which accounts for about 40 per cent of its GDP from tourism. Travellers are now opting for European carriers or African airlines like Ethiopian Airlines, but these alternatives often lack sufficient luggage capacity for Nigerian travellers, who typically travel heavily.
Broader Economic and Health Implications
The crisis extends beyond passenger travel, hindering the transport of critical medicines to the Gulf region. This imperils supply routes for cancer drugs and other treatments requiring refrigeration, forcing companies to reroute flights and seek overland access. While there are no major shortages yet, executives warn this could change if the conflict persists, as the Gulf relies heavily on imports and some medicines have short shelf lives.
Charles Amokwu, an industry analyst, explained that the war has created a dual-chokepoint crisis, disrupting the Strait of Hormuz and Suez Canal, which reshapes trade flows for Africa and the global economy. Maritime rerouting around the Cape of Good Hope adds 12 to 19 days to Asia–Europe voyages, reducing global yearly cargo capacity by 10–15 per cent and increasing freight rates by 250 per cent to 500 per cent on certain routes.
Industry Responses and Future Outlook
Dr Yinka Folami, President of the National Association of Nigerian Travel Agencies (NANTA), stated that the ongoing war will shrink global travel, with 35 to 40 per cent of flights in and out of Nigeria impacted. Travel agency yields have dropped due to daily flight cancellations and refund requests. He expressed hope for a quick resolution to curb further economic collapse.
Emirates recently announced a temporary suspension of all flights to and from Dubai following strikes on its facilities by Iran, advising travellers not to go to Dubai International Airport. The airline is working with authorities to assess the situation and resume operations safely. As airlines raise airfares and seek alternative routes, the global travel industry faces significant challenges, with experts urging a swift resolution to mitigate economic and health impacts.
