BudgIT, a civic tech organization, has expressed concerns about the Nigerian government's 2026 budget, describing it as "ambitious, but unrealistic" and unviable. In a statement released on Monday, the organization highlighted that with projected revenues of N36.9 trillion and expenditures of N68.3 trillion, the country will face a fiscal deficit of N31.5 trillion, equivalent to 6.4 percent of the gross domestic product. This figure is more than double the 3 percent limit set by the Fiscal Responsibility Act.
"In practical terms, the government can only finance 53.9 percent of its budget from actual revenues, leaving 46.1 percent dependent on borrowing and loans," BudgIT stated. The organization further noted that this indicates a structural fiscal imbalance that has become embedded in Nigeria's fiscal framework despite repeated warnings from observers.
Nigeria's Largest Budget Yet
Nigeria aims to execute its largest spending plan ever this year, funding it through a combination of revenue and borrowing. President Bola Tinubu initially proposed a budget of N58.5 trillion to the legislature, which was later revised upward to N68.3 trillion after he requested an additional N9.1 trillion. According to the president, this adjustment is intended to cover pending capital projects from previous budget cycles and prevent unsettled obligations from affecting the 2026 fiscal program.
The country has consistently underperformed its revenue projections for years, typically falling short by more than 30 percent, a trend that has raised alarms about the fiscal framework. "The key issue is implementation, and reforms are central to improving revenue mobilisation and execution capacity," Muda Yusuf, Chief Executive Officer of the Centre for the Promotion of Private Enterprise, said in April.
Revenue Projections and Debt Burden
BudgIT, which advocates for transparency and accountability in Nigeria's public finance, stated that the N36.9 trillion revenue target does not appear realistic given the country's heavy reliance on oil revenues and the uncertain gains from tax reforms. The organization also pointed out that while the 47.1 percent increase in capital expenditure to N32.3 trillion signals a commitment to infrastructure expansion and long-term growth, the plan is constrained by debt obligations.
Debt servicing is expected to consume N15.8 trillion of the budget, representing about 45 percent of the target revenue and 23 percent of total expenditure. BudgIT added that this could create a tight fiscal space, leaving a significant portion of government earnings pre-committed and limiting investments in critical sectors. Between 2021 and 2025, total public debt surged from N33.1 trillion to N159.3 trillion, marking a 380.9 percent increase.
"Overall, the 2026 budget reflects a government attempting to balance growth ambitions with fiscal realities but hemmed in by structural inefficiencies (weak growth, low productivity, weak currency, low export diversification, a challenging logistical environment, etc.)," BudgIT stated. "The numbers point to an unambiguous conclusion: Nigeria’s challenge is not just revenue generation, but revenue realism, expenditure discipline, sound debt management and institutional credibility."
