CBN Survey: Nigerian Businesses Maintain Optimism Despite Mounting Economic Pressures
A recent survey conducted by the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) has revealed that Nigerian businesses are expressing broad optimism about the economic outlook, even as they grapple with significant operational challenges. The Business Expectations Survey, which polled 1,900 enterprises nationwide, indicates a resilient sentiment among firms despite persistent issues.
Confidence Index and Sectoral Performance
The Confidence Index for February 2026 stood at 39.4 points, with businesses projecting an increase to 54.3 points over the next six months. This forward-looking optimism suggests a positive trajectory for the economy, driven by various sectors.
Among the three broad sectors surveyed, the industry sector recorded the highest confidence level with 43.2 index points. Agriculture followed at 38.5 points, while the services sector registered 37.8 points. At the subsector level, Mining and Quarrying led all categories with an impressive confidence index of 52.4 points on its operations, followed by Construction at 43.6 points. Market Services, however, recorded the lowest confidence at 24.9 points.
Geographical Variations and Regional Outlook
The survey highlighted notable geographical differences in business sentiment across Nigeria's regions. The North-East region emerged as the most optimistic, reporting 51 index points, while the South-East returned the lowest reading at 29.8 points. The South-West region demonstrated the strongest forward-looking outlook across all review periods, indicating robust future expectations.
Employment Prospects and Expansion Plans
Businesses across the country anticipate hiring more workers in March 2026, with the Construction sector showing the highest employment prospects. Mining and Quarrying led expansion plans for the same month, reflecting growth intentions despite economic headwinds.
Average capacity utilization across all sectors stood at 55.4 percent, with Agriculture recording the highest at 56.3 percent. This indicates that while businesses are operating below full capacity, there is room for improvement and growth.
Exchange Rate Expectations and Economic Indicators
Respondents to the survey expressed expectations for the naira to appreciate steadily against the US dollar over the coming months. The index for exchange rate expectations rose from 32.5 currently to a projected 43.5 in six months, suggesting confidence in currency stability and economic policies.
Significant Business Constraints and Challenges
Despite the overall positive sentiment, firms identified several significant obstacles that continue to weigh on operations. Insecurity topped the list of business constraints with 71.1 index points, followed closely by high and multiple taxes at 70.7 points. Insufficient power supply ranked third at 70.0 points, highlighting ongoing infrastructure challenges.
High interest rates and bank charges rounded out the top five constraints, indicating that financial pressures remain a concern for Nigerian businesses. These factors collectively create a challenging environment that firms must navigate while maintaining optimism about future prospects.
The CBN survey underscores the complex landscape in which Nigerian businesses operate, balancing optimism with practical challenges. As firms look ahead to the next six months, their confidence in economic improvement suggests resilience and adaptability in the face of adversity.
