The Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) has reported that Nigerian businesses maintained a positive outlook in June 2026, despite persistent macroeconomic challenges. The Business Confidence Index (BCI) stood at 7.2 points, indicating continued optimism among formal businesses, according to the June 2026 Business Expectations Survey (BES) released by the CBN's Statistics Department.
Top Constraints: High Taxes, Insecurity, Interest Rates
The survey, conducted between 8 and 12 June 2026, covered 1,900 business enterprises across Nigeria. Respondents identified high or multiple taxation (73.7%) as the most significant business constraint, followed by insecurity (71.7%) and high interest rates (67.0%). Other major concerns included unfavourable political climate (63.5%), high bank charges (61.9%), poor infrastructure (58.5%), and financial constraints (58.2%).
Drivers of Optimism and Caution
According to the CBN, respondents' positive sentiment was largely driven by economic diversification (38.3%) and expansionary fiscal policy (16.2%). Cautious views were mainly attributed to energy-related challenges (23.4%) and elevated geopolitical uncertainties (16.5%).
Sectoral and Regional Insights
All major sectors expressed optimism about the macroeconomy and their own business operations. The mining and quarrying sector recorded the highest BCI at 42.9 points and also posted the highest capacity utilisation. Confidence remained positive across all sectors over the next six months, although the industry and services sectors recorded slower confidence levels in June compared with the previous month, from 12.5 to 10.9 points.
Regionally, respondents in Northern Nigeria expressed stronger confidence than their Southern counterparts. While all regions were optimistic about the next three and six months, the South-East and South-South expressed negative expectations for the following month, whereas the North-East recorded the strongest optimism over the medium-term outlook.
Business Activity and Employment Expectations
The survey indicated that firms expect improvements in the volume of business activity in July, September, and December 2026, with the volume of business activity index recording the highest confidence level among selected business indicators. However, the Financial Condition Index and Credit Access Index, while positive, were lower than other indicators, suggesting that financing conditions and access to credit require attention.
Employment expectations in July 2026 were generally cautious across sectors. The mining and quarrying sector exhibited the strongest expansion outlook at 84.6 index points, but hiring expectations remained cautious in the near term.
Currency and Borrowing Rate Expectations
Businesses expect the naira to appreciate gradually against the US dollar across the review periods. At the same time, respondents expect borrowing rates to remain elevated, with relatively stable borrowing rate indices suggesting a moderate increase in financing costs over the near to medium term.
The CBN noted that the survey methodology was enhanced from April 2026 by replacing the previous three-point weighted diffusion index with a five-point scale to provide a more nuanced assessment of business sentiment.
