Nigeria's economy expanded by 3.89% year-on-year in the first quarter of 2026, marking the fastest growth rate in a decade, according to the latest data from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS). This represents a significant acceleration from the 3.13% growth recorded in the same period of 2025.
Key Drivers of Growth
The expansion was fueled by robust performances in the services, agriculture, and industry sectors. The services sector remained the largest contributor to the economy, accounting for 57.73% of aggregate GDP, up slightly from 57.50% in Q1 2025. Agriculture recorded a real growth of 3.15% in Q1 2026, a sharp recovery from a mere 0.07% in the corresponding quarter of 2025. The industry sector grew by 3.50%, compared to 3.42% in Q1 2025, while the services sector expanded by 4.31%, marginally lower than the 4.33% recorded a year earlier.
Oil Sector Performance
Oil production averaged 1.55 million barrels per day (mbpd) in Q1 2026, down from 1.62 mbpd in Q1 2025 and 1.58 mbpd in Q4 2025. Despite the decline in output, the oil sector's real GDP grew by 2.57% year-on-year, up from 1.87% in the prior year. However, this growth was slower than the 6.79% recorded in Q4 2025. The oil sector contributed 3.92% to total real GDP in Q1 2026, compared to 3.97% in the same period last year.
Non-Oil Sector Dominance
The non-oil sector expanded by 3.94% in real terms, up from 3.19% in Q1 2025, though slightly below the 3.99% growth seen in Q4 2025. This sector accounted for 96.08% of total GDP in Q1 2026, compared to 96.03% in the prior year. Key contributors included telecommunications, crop production, trade, cement, financial institutions, real estate, construction, and road transport.
Top 10 Contributing Activities to Real GDP in Q1 2026 (%)
- Trade: 17.89%
- Crop Production: 17.38%
- Real Estate: 13.10%
- Telecommunications & Information Services: 9.19%
- Construction: 4.85%
- Crude Petroleum and Natural Gas: 3.92%
- Food, Beverage and Tobacco: 3.48%
- Financial Institutions: 3.41%
- Livestock: 3.08%
- Professional, Scientific & Technical Services: 2.44%
Nominal GDP and Aggregate Performance
The NBS reported that aggregate GDP at basic prices stood at N110.79 trillion in Q1 2026, up from N94.05 trillion in Q1 2025, representing a nominal year-on-year growth of 17.79%. The ICT sector continued its strong expansion, growing by nearly 11%.
Outlook
The positive GDP figures come amid expectations of lower petrol prices, as diplomatic talks between the United States and Iran progress toward reopening the Strait of Hormuz. Brent crude dropped by 5.19% to $98.17 per barrel on May 25, while West Texas Intermediate fell 5.54% to $91.25.
