Nigeria's $3.74bn Crude Imports Fuel Dangote Refinery Operations in 2025
Nigeria imported crude oil valued at $3.74 billion in 2025 to sustain the operations of the Dangote Petroleum Refinery, according to data released by the Central Bank of Nigeria. This significant import figure was detailed in the apex bank's Balance of Payments report, which highlighted how these crude purchases influenced the nation's current account dynamics throughout the year.
Current Account Surplus Sees Decline Amid Structural Shifts
The report revealed that Nigeria recorded a current account surplus of $14.04 billion in 2025. This marks a decrease from the $19.03 billion surplus in 2024, but it still represents an improvement compared to the $6.42 billion surplus in 2023. The Central Bank of Nigeria attributed the drop from 2024 levels partly to structural changes in the oil trade, including the increased crude imports necessary for domestic refining activities.
Additionally, crude oil exports fell to $31.54 billion in 2025 from $36.85 billion in the previous year, further impacting the country's external balance. Despite this, Nigeria's goods account remained in surplus at $14.51 billion, up from $13.17 billion in 2024. The CBN credited this improvement largely to activities associated with the Dangote refinery, such as exports of refined petroleum products worth $5.85 billion and increased gas exports.
Refinery Operations Reduce Fuel Imports but Boost Exports
The Dangote refinery's output led to a notable reduction in fuel imports, with refined petroleum product imports dropping significantly to $10.00 billion in 2025 from $14.06 billion in 2024. This shift underscores the refinery's role in enhancing local refining capacity and decreasing reliance on imported fuels.
Rising Non-Oil Imports and External Payments Pressure Economy
Data from the report indicated that non-oil imports rose to $29.24 billion in 2025 from $25.74 billion in 2024, reflecting sustained demand for foreign goods. Concurrently, Nigeria experienced higher external payments, with net outflows for services increasing to $14.58 billion from $13.36 billion, driven by expenditures on transport, travel, and insurance.
Net outflows in the primary income account also surged by 60.88 percent to $9.09 billion, largely due to increased dividend and interest payments to foreign investors. Meanwhile, secondary income inflows slightly declined to $23.20 billion from $24.88 billion, although remittances continued to provide some support to the economy.
Financial Account Shifts and External Reserves Growth
On the financial account, Nigeria posted a net borrowing position of $1.69 billion in 2025, compared to a net lending position of $9.65 billion in 2024. Portfolio investment inflows fell by 48.3 percent to $8.04 billion, while foreign direct investment rose to $4.01 billion from $1.61 billion, suggesting a gradual shift towards longer-term investments. The report also noted increased investment outflows by Nigerians abroad during the year.
Overall, Nigeria's balance of payments remained positive at $4.23 billion in 2025, although lower than the $6.83 billion recorded in 2024. External reserves increased to $45.75 billion at the end of December 2025, representing a 13.83 percent rise compared to the previous year.
Analysts Question Policy Effectiveness Amid Continued Crude Reliance
Earlier reports indicated that Nigeria imported crude oil worth N5.734 trillion in 2025, despite efforts to prioritize local supply under the federal government's naira-for-crude policy. Industry analysts have raised concerns about the policy's effectiveness, noting continued reliance on imported crude by local refineries.
Jeremiah Olatide, Chief Executive Officer of Petroleumprice.ng, stated that the policy has had a limited impact since its introduction in 2024. He explained that the Dangote refinery still sources a significant portion of its feedstock from abroad, while most modular refineries also depend on imported crude. According to him, although local refining has improved product availability, it has not significantly reduced fuel prices, as pricing remains tied to international benchmarks.
In a related development, David Bird, managing director and chief executive officer of Dangote Petroleum Refinery, noted that petrol prices may not decline even as the refinery operates at full capacity, citing volatility in global oil markets and rising supply chain costs. He emphasized that the refinery operates within the international commodities market, which directly influences the cost of crude oil and refined products, including those sourced locally under the crude-for-naira programme.
