Nigeria's External Reserves Reach $46 Billion, Marking Highest Level in Eight Years
Nigeria's foreign exchange reserves have achieved a significant milestone, climbing to $46.012 billion as of January 22, 2026. This represents the highest level recorded since August 2018, according to data released by the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN). The reserves increased by approximately $510 million since the beginning of the year, rising from $45.5005 billion on December 31, 2025.
This substantial growth in external reserves is providing a much-needed boost to the naira and strengthening Nigeria's economic buffers amidst ongoing reforms. The CBN, under the leadership of Olayemi Cardoso, attributes this achievement to improved foreign currency inflows and strategic reforms in the oil and gas sector.
Petroleum Industry Reforms Drive Crude Production Increase
A key factor behind the reserve accumulation has been the implementation of the Petroleum Industry Act (PIA), which has enhanced transparency, reduced operational disruptions, and attracted new investments to Nigeria's upstream petroleum operations. Data from the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission (NUPRC) reveals that crude oil production, including condensates, averaged 1.64 million barrels per day (mbpd) in 2025.
This marks a 5.81% year-on-year increase from the 1.55 mbpd recorded in 2024. When excluding condensates, the growth is even more pronounced, with production rising by 8.21% from 1.34 mbpd in 2024 to 1.45 mbpd in 2025. However, production experienced a slight month-on-month dip in December 2025, falling by 3.42% to 1.54 mbpd from 1.60 mbpd in November.
Strong Performance Across Major Export Terminals
The 2025 production data highlights robust performance at Nigeria's key export terminals:
- Bonny Terminal: Recorded the strongest growth with production jumping by 25.19% to 7.41 million barrels
- Qua Iboe Terminal: Output surged by 16.69% to 4.42 million barrels
- Brass Terminal: Production climbed by 18.04%, averaging 1.06 million barrels
- Forcados Terminal: Increased by 12.08% to 8.56 million barrels from 7.64 million barrels in 2024
- Escravos Terminal: Grew by 3.98% to 4.29 million barrels
These improvements have supported government revenues and fiscal performance, contributing to the overall economic stability.
Cautious Optimism for 2026 Amid OPEC Constraints
Analysts project a modest improvement in crude oil production for 2026, with expectations averaging around 1.71 mbpd. However, OPEC's decision to cap Nigeria's crude output at 1.50 mbpd (excluding condensates) presents a significant constraint that highlights the need for large-scale investments to achieve more substantial growth.
Despite these limitations, the sustained decline in oil theft and pipeline vandalism remains a positive development, supporting sector stability and helping to maintain the upward trajectory of Nigeria's foreign reserves.
Naira Exchange Rate Projections for 2026
Economic experts have provided projections for the naira's performance in 2026. Yemi Kale, Chief Economist at the Africa Export-Import Bank (Afreximbank), forecasts that the naira could trade between N1,350 and N1,450 per US dollar. These projections consider multiple factors including oil prices, foreign exchange inflows, inflation trends, and policy consistency.
The current reserve position, representing the highest level in eight years, offers renewed optimism for the naira's stability and Nigeria's economic outlook as the country continues to implement structural reforms across key sectors.
